Politico has reported that high-level discussions are under way in Berlin about sending a warship through the Taiwan Strait, following similar US and French excursions that challenged China’s claim to the waterway.
It shows that the German establishment is worried about the US perception of Germany as a less than reliable ally and about France’s transparent ambition to be the EU’s leading military power.
At the same time, the Taiwan plan is clear evidence that Germany does not want to take any risks or invest too much in tackling these issues.
Germany is under constant pressure from the US administration to spend more on defense, but that is a political impossibility while the Social Democrats are part of the governing coalition: They do not recognize NATO’s 2 percent spending pledge as reasonable.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats are more pro-NATO and pro-US — although it would like someone other than US President Donald Trump to be in charge — but their ability to back up those loyalties with action are limited.
One reason is that German voters are consistently opposed to their country’s participation in any overseas conflicts; about three-quarters were against interfering in Syria, for example.
The German concept of a “parliamentary army” — one that only intervenes abroad with the parliament’s permission — makes acting against such formidable majorities problematic. If German troops do go overseas, it is usually on training and support missions. Even in Afghanistan, the only country out of a dozen with German deployments where Germany serves as a lead nation, training Afghan soldiers is the focus of the mission.
Another reason is that the German armed forces face combat readiness problems. Although the Bundeswehr’s inspector general in March reported to parliament that the situation was improving, he admitted that only about 70 percent of the military’s weapons systems were immediately usable and that difficulties remained with submarines and combat aircraft.
Exact numbers of how much of every specific type of military equipment is battle-ready are not being released anymore, which is somewhat suspicious given alarming reports from previous years.
The German navy, too, is not in the best shape. The story of its lead F125 frigate, the Baden-Wuerttemberg, is a good illustration. The warship was first delivered to the navy in 2016, but sent back to the shipyard for numerous fixes. It was delivered anew in late April and should be commissioned this month.
Meanwhile, existing ships suffer from frequent spare-part shortages and long repair times. The navy, like the rest of the Bundeswehr, is short on personnel and it is not heavily engaged in international operations.
The Taiwan Strait looks like an ideal setting in which Germany could show that France, which has been investing heavily in its naval power, is not the only European country with a large, functional military.
In April, a French warship, the frigate Vendemiaire, sailed through the Strait. It was tailed and told to leave by the Chinese navy, but it completed the mission, adding the French voice to that of the US, which has repeatedly sent ships to the area over the past year.
Germany could also demonstrate its loyalty to NATO and US interests; for Germany, the South China Sea is not a strategic priority, so if it shows its flag there, it would be out of solidarity with allies.
At the same time, Germany would not be taking on much risk. Although China always voices strong objections when Western ships pass through the Taiwan Strait, which, along with Taiwan itself, it regards as its own, the probability that a NATO ship would be attacked with deadly force there is low. China has enough on its hands fighting a trade war with the US without adding a military conflict to it. It does not need simultaneous trouble with the EU, either.
Germany has much more of an interest in the safety and sovereignty of Ukraine, a country that aspires to EU membership, than in what happens in the South China Sea. It has an ongoing, though recently neglected, role in mediating Ukraine’s conflict with Russia.
However, Germany would not try to send its warships into the Sea of Azov to help free up Ukrainian ports, which are under pressure from the Russian navy. There, the possibility of a deadly clash would be much higher than in the Taiwan Strait.
Still, even symbolic gestures matter. If a German ship does sail to the Taiwan Strait, Germany’s NATO partners should not dismiss the move as meaningless. Rather, they should see it as a promise that Germany will remain true to its alliances.
Just don’t demand too much of it now.
Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion’s Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion Web site Slon.ru. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Saudi Arabian largesse is flooding Egypt’s cultural scene, but the reception is mixed. Some welcome new “cooperation” between two regional powerhouses, while others fear a hostile takeover by Riyadh. In Cairo, historically the cultural capital of the Arab world, Egyptian Minister of Culture Nevine al-Kilany recently hosted Saudi Arabian General Entertainment Authority chairman Turki al-Sheikh. The deep-pocketed al-Sheikh has emerged as a Medici-like patron for Egypt’s cultural elite, courted by Cairo’s top talent to produce a slew of forthcoming films. A new three-way agreement between al-Sheikh, Kilany and United Media Services — a multi-media conglomerate linked to state intelligence that owns much of
The US and other countries should take concrete steps to confront the threats from Beijing to avoid war, US Representative Mario Diaz-Balart said in an interview with Voice of America on March 13. The US should use “every diplomatic economic tool at our disposal to treat China as what it is... to avoid war,” Diaz-Balart said. Giving an example of what the US could do, he said that it has to be more aggressive in its military sales to Taiwan. Actions by cross-party US lawmakers in the past few years such as meeting with Taiwanese officials in Washington and Taipei, and
The Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan has no official diplomatic allies in the EU. With the exception of the Vatican, it has no official allies in Europe at all. This does not prevent the ROC — Taiwan — from having close relations with EU member states and other European countries. The exact nature of the relationship does bear revisiting, if only to clarify what is a very complicated and sensitive idea, the details of which leave considerable room for misunderstanding, misrepresentation and disagreement. Only this week, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) received members of the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations
Denmark’s “one China” policy more and more resembles Beijing’s “one China” principle. At least, this is how things appear. In recent interactions with the Danish state, such as applying for residency permits, a Taiwanese’s nationality would be listed as “China.” That designation occurs for a Taiwanese student coming to Denmark or a Danish citizen arriving in Denmark with, for example, their Taiwanese partner. Details of this were published on Sunday in an article in the Danish daily Berlingske written by Alexander Sjoberg and Tobias Reinwald. The pretext for this new practice is that Denmark does not recognize Taiwan as a state under