In 1964, the first president of Indonesia, Sukarno, in front of enormous crowds on the country’s independence day, claimed that “the year of 1965 will be the year of living dangerously.” Unfortunately, this prophecy became one of his few correct predictions.
As Sukarno expected, in 1965, skyrocketing hyperinflation, aggravated foreign debt and rampant unemployment led to an economic meltdown, while a fierce political struggle between nationalist and communist parties intensified social instability and brought Indonesia to the brink of collapse.
Eventually, a coup d’etat launched by a group of left-wing soldiers on Sept. 30, 1965, was swiftly crushed by right-wing General Suharto. Afterward, despite his irresistible populist charisma and bewildering eloquence, Sukarno’s power gradually declined and shifted to the military.
In 1968, Suharto became Indonesia’s president and formally began his 30-year authoritarian rule of the “new order” era.
Although Taiwan in the past few years has not experienced any of the severe social uprisings, economic turmoil or political chaos that Indonesia did in 1965, many Taiwanese are increasingly worried and uncertain about the nation’s future, now more than ever.
What is even more appalling is that increasingly more people are worried that next year’s presidential and legislative elections might be the last time that Taiwanese enjoy free and democratic elections. It implies that Taiwanese might end their self-conceited democratic way of life with their own votes.
Particularly for people who embrace democratic values, human rights and freedom, anxiety and apprehension over Taiwan’s continued independence from China’s political ambitions have been unprecedentedly culminated in the past few years.
For this phenomenon, political leaders in President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration should sincerely ask themselves: How did we get here?
Three years ago, when Tsai won 6.89 million votes, surpassing her major competitor by 3 million votes, and became the first female president of Taiwan, complacent and jubilant feelings permeated society and the anticipations of her administration were exalted.
Yet, after three years, Tsai’s support in most opinion polls has drastically plunged and her chances of being re-elected are slim.
Especially in the aftermath of its landslide defeat in local elections in November last year, the prospects for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to keep both the executive and legislative branches have become gloomy.
Taiwanese’s increasing frustration and uncertainty about the future stem from two fronts.
On the home front, there has been widespread dissatisfaction over policies initiated by the Tsai administration. Policies such as pension reforms and new labor laws have invoked and radicalized opposition against the Tsai administration, as the interests of veterans, retired public servants and teachers, as well as workers and employers were impaired.
Meanwhile, others have been frustrated and disappointed by Tsai’s half-hearted or insufficient reforms. The Tsai administration’s policies on issues such as transitional justice, judicial reform, campaigning for rectifying the name of Taiwan or pardoning former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) have revealed its reluctance and indecisiveness to initiate essential reforms to revamp the political “status quo.”
As a result, the Tsai administration has not only alienated traditional DPP supporters, but also disheartened many reform-minded voters.
By exacerbating the fury of its opponents and deepening the frustration of its supporters, the Tsai administration has paved the way for its decline.
On the external front, Tsai’s goodwill gesture of proclaiming the “status quo” in cross-strait relations has not been well-received by Beijing.
On the contrary, China has bought off several countries to terminate their diplomatic relations with Taiwan, reducing the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies to an unprecedented low of 17 countries.
Furthermore, by increasing the frequency of dispatching fighter jets and warships circling Taiwan, Beijing’s intensifying military harassment have implicitly undermined Taiwanese’s confidence in the government’s defense capabilities and deepened the doubt over Tsai’s ability to deal with cross-strait relations.
As “cold peace” with China became the unspoken norm in the Tsai administration, Taiwan’s relations with the US and New Southbound Policy countries have made significant progress in various aspects.
Due partly to increased US-China trade tensions and Washington’s strategic reassessment of China, the US Congress has enacted a series of pro-Taiwan legislation to strengthen Taiwan-US relations.
By sending US naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, approving military sales to Taiwan and enhancing the level of official visits, the administration of US President Donald Trump has taken several concrete steps to support Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the implementation of the New Southbound Policy has dramatically reinforced interactions and exchanges between Taiwan and policy countries on numerous areas, which the former administrations had never achieved.
However, the Tsai administration has been incapable of transforming those achievements to make up for its failures on the domestic front.
Tsai’s cryptic leadership has been unhelpful to her popularity, as is her tedious style of speech, reading from a teleprompter, which has failed to inspire or rally any supporters.
As rosy expectations from the Tsai administration gradually faded, more grassroots, unconventional and populist politicians, with the help of cyberwarfare units, have taken ground in the political arena.
An astonishing victory by Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) in November last year is a typical case. His success has overthrown all conventional expectations and criteria for a qualified mayoral candidate.
The new political dynamics have cast a shadow over Taiwan’s prospects.
Although foreseeing the danger of China’s sugar-coated economic enticements, all presidential hopefuls from the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are still appealing to strengthening economic ties with China in the hope of boosting Taiwan’s economy.
Two of the KMT’s potential candidates, Han and Hon Hai chairman Terry Gou (郭台銘), have called for revitalizing Taiwan’s economy by improving relations with China.
Despite numerous cases showing that Beijing’s economic promises usually prove to be exaggerated fiction, it is deplorable that Taiwanese still easily fall for such short-term economic traps and pay long-term political consequences.
What is even worse is that an evolving political storm in the DPP’s presidential primary might further undermine Taiwan’s resistance to China’s mounting unification assaults.
Former premier William Lai’s (賴清德) decision to join the primary race has dealt a heavy blow to the Tsai administration, while reflecting the widespread and profound anxieties of many DPP supporters over the party’s prospects.
As the primary race heats up, a potential rift within the DPP would weaken the public’s confidence in granting another four-year mandate to a DPP candidate.
However, without a dramatic overhaul, the odds of Tsai defeating the KMT’s populist mayor or business tycoon, or even an Internet celebrity mayor, are rather slim, which is why some argue that the primary race can play a positive role in rallying support and boosting the DPP’s morale.
Without denying the enormous efforts and unswerving resolve of the Tsai administration, it is indisputable that an implicit collusion between the rise of populism domestically and China’s multifaceted infiltration externally have eroded Taiwan’s democratic sustainability.
“The enemy within” has become not merely a remote and unrealistic fiction, but an ongoing and evolving reality show.
People who feel “the year of living dangerously” certainly have reason to worry. With more specious remarks by populist politicians who try to degrade human dignity into nothing but a desire-satisfying economic animal, Taiwan’s future and democracy are in jeopardy.
Overall, the fundamental predicament that Taiwanese encounter is not a sluggish economy or external threats, but a lack of correct value guidance and sufficient confidence in mastering their destiny.
As the elections approach, Taiwanese must demonstrate that they are not just entitled, but also far-sighted enough to select the best candidate for the nation’s lasting freedom and prosperity.
Eric Chiou is an associate professor of international political economy at National Chiao Tung University.
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry