Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has become a master of the mixed message.
This man, whose political experience has heretofore been restricted to a decade as a legislator and several years as general manager of Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Corp, and who was roundly defeated in the KMT’s 2017 chairperson election, is now being regarded as a potential presidential nominee.
His list of international trips since taking office a few short months ago certainly suggests that he has the presidency on his radar. In February, he was off to Malaysia and Singapore; last month to Hong Kong, Macau and southern China; and earlier this month to the US, ostensibly for academic exchanges.
On Tuesday he held a surprise news conference laying out exactly why he had no intention of joining the KMT’s primary.
The pertinent sentence — “At this time, I cannot join the primary under the existing system” — might have sounded like a refusal to join, but it was laced with provisos and qualifiers that would easily allow him to change his mind.
Reading from prepared notes, he emphasized the words “at this time” and “existing,” as if to say: “Ask me later, when you have changed the system more to my liking.”
He clearly wants some changes in the KMT power structure, criticizing the party for allowing its elite to make decisions in closed-door meetings. This was a dig at senior party members, including the man who routed him in 2017.
He drove the point home, emphasizing the importance of the “Han wave” he rode to Kaohsiung City Hall by saying that the KMT had become out of touch with the electorate.
Forget the primary; he seemed to be saying: Put it to a popular vote.
Han was also at pains to point out how he was born and raised in Taiwan, how he intends to be buried here and how much he loves the Republic of China. What exactly was the point of this, if he were not intending to contend the presidency?
Finally, there was his epiphany that a city would fare better economically if its nation were prosperous. Apparently, he had only come to that realization after all his months of experience governing Kaohsiung.
He said it explicitly: The only way to help Kaohsiung would be to help the nation as a whole.
Here he was not only signaling his hope to lead the nation, but was laying the foundations of an argument against accusations of negligence, should he have to step down after only a year as Kaohsiung mayor.
Taiwan’s economy has faced serious challenges for decades. It would take an extremely astute and experienced leader to turn its fortunes around. The implication of Han’s words seems to be that only he could succeed where previous administrations have failed, regardless of which party was in charge.
It has been suggested that, should Han aspire to the presidency, he would be wiser to wait until 2024. By that point, he would have gained much-needed experience in governance and would be better known to the electorate.
Another argument would be that he should do it now if he wants to try for the top job.
The wave he is currently riding is based upon two related things: The electorate’s disaffection with business as usual and his distance from the elites, with his carefully cultivated “man of the people” image.
In other words, it is not based upon past successes or experience, nor demonstrable leadership in difficult circumstances.
His main problem is: How long does a wave last with nothing to generate it?
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