Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is under pressure at home and abroad, and being encouraged by the US to go to “a nice beach somewhere far from Venezuela.” The question is where would — or could — he go?
The Venezuelan leader has held on for years in the face of protests, a collapsed economy and international sanctions, via a tight grip on the military and by cracking down on the opposition, but the stress has never been greater. The financial noose is tightening globally, many neighbors and Western nations are calling on him to hold elections or step aside, and the opposition has galvanized under Venezuelan National Assembly President and self-declared interim president Juan Guaido into a more cohesive force.
Maduro has insisted publicly he is going nowhere and a departure could be several steps away, if it happens at all.
Illustration: Mountain People
He has spoken frequently to denounce what he says are US-led coup efforts against him and all signs point to him digging in.
Still, contingency plans are being drawn up in case he needs to leave Venezuela at short notice, four people with knowledge of the discussions said.
Any potential safe havens bring risks for Maduro and the countries involved. While the US has said he should leave, it might not take too kindly to any nation that gave him sanctuary. Maduro would also want to feel safe from the reach of Venezuelan and international law.
Some unsurprising destinations are being discussed, including Cuba, Russia and Turkey. In Cuba, the communist government of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel is an ideological ally to Maduro’s Bolivarian Republic.
Some conversations have also taken place about the possibility of him going to Mexico, two of the people said, asking not to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is one of a handful of Latin American leaders not to have recognized Guaido as Venezuela’s rightful president.
Maduro attended Lopez Obrador’s inauguration in December last year.
Discussions have been stepped up because Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores — who has two nephews serving 18 years in a US prison for conspiring to traffic cocaine — is raising pressure on her husband to have a plan B ready, another person said.
The Venezuelan Ministry of Popular Power for Communication and Information did not respond to requests for comment.
“I think it is better for the transition to democracy in Venezuela that [Maduro] be outside the country, and there are a number of countries that I think would be willing to accept him,” US Special Envoy to Venezuela Elliott Abrams said, citing “friends in places like Cuba and Russia.”
The fate of Maduro, his family and top lieutenants is key to any transition of power in Venezuela, an OPEC member whose population is suffering chronic shortages of food, medicines and basic amenities.
A summit of European and Latin American countries held in Uruguay’s capital Montevideo last week agreed to work toward a peaceful political process that leads to new presidential elections in Venezuela.
Speaking in Washington last week, Abrams said that countries other than Russia and Cuba “have come to us privately and said they’d be willing to take members of the current illegitimate regime if it would help the transition.”
He declined to name them.
Any flight to Cuba by Maduro or his people would give the US justification to put Havana back on the radar, said a person familiar with the thinking, citing the potential for evidence linking some officials to drug or weapons trafficking in the region.
It would allow Washington to push ahead with a package of extraordinary measures targeting Cuba for encouraging state-sponsored terrorism across the region, the person said.
Venezuelan Minister of Communication and Information Jorge Rodriguez was in Mexico last month around the time of a visit by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
One person said the topic of possible escape routes had come up late last year.
Roberto Velasco, the spokesman for Mexican Secretary of Foreign Affairs Marcelo Ebrard, said that Lopez Obrador’s government and the Maduro administration have not discussed asylum.
A spokesperson for Sanchez was not immediately available for comment.
At his daily news conference on Friday last week, Lopez Obrador said his government is guided by the constitutional prohibition on intervening in the affairs of other nations, but would be open to helping mediate a dialogue between the two sides in Venezuela.
Mexico has a long tradition of granting asylum to foreign leaders. Iranian Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who fled during the revolution in 1979, took refuge in the resort city of Cuernavaca, with former US president Richard Nixon visiting him.
Soviet Marxist Leon Trotsky, who became an exile after clashing with then-Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, moved to Mexico in 1937 and was welcomed by then-Mexican president Lazaro Cardenas, who is a hero for Lopez Obrador.
There is the possibility Maduro could seek refuge further afield if he decided to leave.
A French official said the issue of Maduro’s fate is being discussed in the international community, although a solution has yet to be found.
An added complication surrounds what to do with the vice president of Maduro’s United Socialist Party, Diosdado Cabello, another person with knowledge of the deliberations said.
Prosecutors in the US have been compiling evidence against Cabello since at least 2015 on alleged drug trafficking, as the Wall Street Journal and Spanish daily ABC reported at the time.
The air is getting thinner for Maduro either way. The economy is in free fall, oil exports are subject to US sanction, rank-and-file soldiers are deserting the military, while the IMF said that it sees hyperinflation and outward migration intensifying this year.
Russia, a traditional ally, is showing signs of doubt over Maduro’s ability to hold on to power.
Moscow is not fond of Maduro, but has little choice in the matter, said a person with knowledge of the internal discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Kremlin would not encourage him to flee unless there is a clear alternative — and for Moscow that is not Guaido, the person said.
“He is not planning to go anywhere,” said Russian lawmaker Andrey Klimov, deputy head of the upper house of parliament’s foreign affairs committee.
He dismissed talk of Maduro’s evacuation as “psychological warfare” aimed at “sowing panic and hysteria.”
“I think Maduro and his people are more likely to become guerrillas and make a second Vietnam of Venezuela,” he said, adding that Russia is “talking to Maduro in order to ease tensions inside the country and abroad, but we can’t command him.”
A person familiar with Guaido’s thinking said that his priority is to secure a significant humanitarian package to win over mid and lower-ranking military members.
As for the government, his stance is that there is nothing to talk about except the terms of Maduro’s exit; anything else would allow Maduro to gain time to regroup, the person said.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Maduro last month to assure him of his support, addressing him as “my brother.”
The destination for tonnes of Venezuelan gold, Turkey has offered to take in Maduro, although only as a last recourse, a person familiar with the discussions said.
Any decision would be taken by Erdogan directly and right now the priority is on backing him at home, a senior Turkish official said.
The Vatican might also have a role to play in organizing some kind of exit for Maduro, another person said.
Guaido urged Pope Francis in an interview with Italy’s Sky TG24 broadcast last week to act as a mediator in Venezuela.
If Maduro turned to Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin would give him refuge, said Andrey Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research organization set up by the Kremlin.
“It’s not in our rules to give up our own — and he is still one of ours,” he said.
However, Russia thinks Maduro can survive the crisis, Kortunov said.
“I believe Maduro has boltholes closer than Russia, but this is still premature. So far, the regime has shown some resilience,” he said.
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