In the 2014 elections for mayors and county commissioners, Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) was elected as mayor of Taipei despite being a full-time physician and a political “freshman.” Now, four years later, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) is doing surprisingly well in opinion polls despite being seen as a “pickled fish.”
People on the political scene are even talking about a “Han tide” and wondering whether it will have a spillover effect to the benefit of other KMT candidates, especially in Kaohsiung.
Considering the precedent set by Ko four years ago, the Han phenomenon should really not be all that surprising, but what does it mean for Taiwan?
There is bound to be a wide range of views about this, but as far the KMT’s prospects are concerned — or more precisely the prospects of many of its leaders — the “Han tide” could turn out to be very chilly indeed.
People call Han a “pickled fish” because, at 61 years of age, he is by no means fresh, being neither young nor new to the political scene. On the contrary, he is quite old in both respects.
At first he could not find a place to stand for election. There was talk of him standing in Taipei, but eventually he set up camp in Kaohsiung. Not long ago, a lot of people thought he was just messing around, but now he is unexpectedly threatening to pull down the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) flag in its southern heartland. If he does so, it would mark a big revival for his political career.
Could an upturn in Han’s popularity be an ill wind for certain people in the KMT? There are some signs that things are headed in that direction.
First, KMT candidates in various cities and counties have been inviting Han to join their rallies, and Han has willingly accepted almost all such invitations. Politicians are the most sensitive of creatures, especially during election campaigns, so these KMT politicians must have caught wind of something.
Second, Han’s supporters in Kaohsiung want him to draw a line between himself and “old forces,” such as former president and former KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), former premier and KMT Chairman Wu Den-yih (吳敦義), former legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) and New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫).
They want Han to keep his distance to avoid alienating independent voters. All of a sudden, Han has become a new symbol for the KMT, while the others mentioned are being swept aside.
Third, Han’s fans in Kaohsiung have made it known that when they declare their support for Han, it does not mean that they support the KMT, so it would be better if those KMT candidates in other cities and counties stop giving Han the wrong kind of help.
To put it another way, the Han phenomenon is an expression of dissatisfaction. A certain proportion of those who plan to vote for him do not equate Han with the KMT, and might even think that he is bigger than the KMT.
What matters about these three messages that voters are sending out is that each of them has received an immediate response, so that they are having political effects.
For example, the first message shows that people in the KMT have already defined Han as the No. 1 figure in the party. This is an honor that Han has never before received in his 30-year political career, so no matter whether he wins or loses the mayoral elections on Nov. 24, he will still have gained a lot in the process.
The second effect is that the “Han tide” is a new wave, a change from Taiwan’s “shallow-dish” political culture; the likes of Ma and Chu, who were cultivated in the classic way by the KMT, are now well and truly out of fashion. It is a cruel development, but when you think about it, it is hard to deny.
Finally, it appears that the KMT is starting an “out with the old and in with the new” process before the 2020 presidential and legislative elections, even before the votes are cast in this year’s local government polls.
If political territories at the local government level are redrawn at the end of this month, it could well be because voters are scoring the DPP’s performance in central government over the past two years.
Nonetheless, if those KMT figures whom Han calls “these elders of the past” are on the way out, they will no longer be in a position take credit for the results. In that case, what changes could we expect to see within the KMT?
In conclusion, there are many people for whom it is no joke to ask whether the “Han tide” will be a chilly one.
Tzou Jiing-wen is editor-in-chief of the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper).
Translated by Julian Clegg
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