A complex and nuanced agreement that was recently concluded between Beijing and the Vatican has the potential to significantly influence China’s future and relations between China and the United States. After decades of disagreement, China and the Holy See finalized a provisional agreement on the appointment of Catholic bishops in China. The deal would recognize seven bishops that had been appointed by Beijing, would give both sides a say in the naming of bishops, and the Pope would have the power to veto candidates. This agreement has implications for two important issues facing China — religious freedom, and the status of Taiwan.
Recent months have seen China intensify its crackdown on religious practices in China. It has been reported by a United Nations Committee that large numbers of ethnic Uighurs and other Muslim minorities have been detained, with some spending “varying periods in political ‘re-education camps’ for even nonthreatening expressions of Muslim ethno-religious culture like daily greetings. Estimates about them range from tens of thousands to upwards of a million.” The State Department has said the US Government is “deeply troubled” by the crackdown, although China has denied the veracity of these claims. There has also been a reported intensification of China’s crackdown on Chinese churches, and Beijing has already declared it alone will have the power to declare the successor to the Dalai Lama. This is the political context into which the Vatican is leaping. It remains to be seen if closer engagement with Beijing will improve China’s approach to religion, or endorse it.
Concluding this agreement also has implications for the status of Taiwan. The Holy See does not currently recognize Beijing, and is the only European country to continue to recognize Taipei. Many see this provisional agreement as clearing the path for a shift in diplomatic recognition to Beijing, which would make the Holy See the sixth country to shift recognition since 2016 — joining El Salvador, Burkina Faso, the Dominican Republic, Sao Tome and Principe and Panama. Taiwan would only have 16 remaining diplomatic allies, and none in Europe. The Trump administration has indicated its preference that countries that recognize Taiwan sustain that recognition. El Salvador was severely criticized by Washington when it shifted diplomatic recognition to Taiwan.
This is an issue that has yet to burst to the fore, which means that Washington still has an opportunity to shape how it evolves rather than just reacting. While enhancing the Vatican’s ability to engage the Chinese people is certainly a legitimate interest for the Holy See, it should be considered within a broader context that has significant implications for the United States, Taiwan, and broader human rights considerations.
Close diplomatic engagement about the Holy See’s plans and approach to China — both over the issue of China’s broader approach to religion and religious people and over the issue of Taiwan’s status — could be a priority in diplomacy between the United States and the Holy See. Sam Brownback, who currently serves as Ambassador at Large for International Religious Freedom and previously served as Governor, Senator, and Congressman from Kansas, has an opportunity to play a significant role in driving this issue and ensuring it receives the appropriate level of attention and political force. This is because the Vatican’s engagement with Beijing, as important as it is, must be understood in its broader geopolitical context. Principles of human rights, and geopolitical considerations of Taiwan’s international space, hang in the balance.
Abraham M. Denmark is director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and formerly served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia. The views expressed are his own.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with