On Aug. 31, the Ministry of National Defense submitted its annual China Military Power Report.
The report states that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is planning to complete comprehensive preparations for armed combat with Taiwan and perhaps take action, including blockading Taiwan, before 2020.
This is the ministry’s clearest statement of the Chinese military’s time frame to complete preparations for an attack on Taiwan. Surprisingly, the report has been met with silence from the government and the opposition.
Have Taiwanese stopped worrying about a Chinese attack on Taiwan? Have they finally become numb to the possibility of such a thing, despite Chinese aircraft and ships patrolling around Taiwan, military exercises in the South China Sea, diplomatic allies severing relations with Taiwan, Chinese bullying and so on?
If that is true, then this is the result that Beijing has dreamed about and Taiwan is closing in on the day when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will live up to its pledge to take the nation in just three days.
The report was the result of the ministry’s careful analysis of national defense guidelines and the PLA’s advances, forming the the basis for the view that the PLA will complete preparations by 2020, including the ability to deny US intervention.
The only way to prevent war is to prepare for war. Annihilating the enemy is the domain of the military, so planning is in its hands. Still, a three-day war is not only a matter of military power; the strength and stability of political and economic forces will be a key factor in the outcome.
If the economy collapses overnight and panic spreads to the markets, the outcome will have already been decided.
For example, when the US raised import tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum, the Turkish lira collapsed. In the same way, Taiwan’s big financial holding companies would immediately be paralyzed if China were to impose a military blockade or freeze the Chinese assets of Taiwanese banks in China, which is a result of the fact that Taiwanese remain fully unaware of who the enemy is as they continue to invest in China.
The cross-strait relationship has deteriorated over the past two years and China’s unbridled bullying continues. At the same time, Taiwanese financial companies continue to move to China at an increasing pace with the government’s connivance and Beijing’s incentives.
By March, Taiwanese banks’ exposure to China reached US$71.2 billion, just behind their exposure to the US, which is US$71.3 billion. Exposure to China among some Taiwanese financial holding companies is as high as 93 percent of their net value.
According to Financial Supervisory Commission rules, exposure must not exceed 100 percent of the net value. This rule is in itself absurd: How could a bank continue to operate if 100 percent of its net value is confiscated?
Hopefully, the government will raise its awareness of who the enemy is and amend the regulations.
In preparation for war in 2020, Taiwanese banks should bring their exposure to China below 20 percent of their net value.
China’s military ambitions are abundantly clear, so the best way to avoid war is to prepare for it.
Fortunately, 2020 is still two years away. Foreign-exchange reserves have inflated in recent years and the question of how to build a substantive reserve is one of the issues that must be addressed.
China’s introduction of a residence permit for Taiwanese is part of a plan to organize its military reserve in Taiwan ahead of 2020. How to detect and dissolve the fifth column that China is organizing is another main responsibility of the government.
Numbness is the beginning of collapse. Under the pressure of a powerful approaching army, freedom and democracy might not be enough to overcome the temptation to make a profit. If Taiwan misses the first opportunity, all will be lost. There will be no time for regret and reflection.
It is still two years until 2020. Preparing for war is the only way to avoid war, and it is also the only way to make use of the ministry’s report.
Huang Tien-lin is a national policy adviser, former advisory member of the National Security Council and former managing director and chairman of First Commercial Bank.
Translated by Perry Svensson
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
The past few months have seen tremendous strides in India’s journey to develop a vibrant semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The nation’s established prowess in information technology (IT) has earned it much-needed revenue and prestige across the globe. Now, through the convergence of engineering talent, supportive government policies, an expanding market and technologically adaptive entrepreneurship, India is striving to become part of global electronics and semiconductor supply chains. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vision of “Make in India” and “Design in India” has been the guiding force behind the government’s incentive schemes that span skilling, design, fabrication, assembly, testing and packaging, and
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.