Cross-strait relations have entered a “cold peace” standoff because President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) refuses to recognize the so-called “1992 consensus.”
Two years since Tsai took office, who has benefited from her cross-strait policy? The answer is: Taiwan.
On Feb. 28, Beijing announced 31 incentives for Taiwanese. This was a major victory for Taiwan, which does not need to open its doors to China in return.
Putting aside the question of whether former vice president Lien Chan (連戰) became a tool for China’s “united front” strategy by talking with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Beijing on Friday last week, the meeting represented a comedown for China’s tough Taiwan policy.
Xi returned to his 2015 “four insistences,” without mentioning the more intimidating “six anys”: We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”
It was another major victory for Tsai’s cross-strait policy.
However, the public must also understand that apart from responding to Tsai’s call in an interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP) for the international community to stand up against China, Xi’s main goal behind meeting Lien and restating his Taiwan policy was to speak to his own people and calm down hotheaded Chinese brainwashed by nationalism.
Tension in Northeast Asia has been relieved since the US-North Korea summit, so Washington is shifting its attention to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Xi must be feeling the growing pressure of the US-China trade war, while China’s international containment of Taiwan and Chinese drills around the nation actually pushed the US to pass the sensitive and Taiwan-friendly Taiwan Travel Act and the National Defense Authorization Act for the fiscal year 2019.
This has made Xi realize that more bullying and military threats are likely to hurt his grand plan for cross-strait unification, so it would be better to take a more rational approach.
He therefore offered an olive branch by meeting with Lien to comfort domestic radical nationalists.
He did not meet with KMT Chairman Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) this time because a meeting with Lien was less formal, which would give him more room to alter his policy if necessary.
Ever since Tsai told AFP that she would be willing to talk with Xi on an equal and dignified footing, without any political preconditions, a Tsai-Xi summit has been a hot topic.
Taiwan’s pro-unification media have always advocated such a meeting, but the problem — with or without political preconditions — is that it would deepen the international community’s impression that Taiwan is part of China and legitimize a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Cautious assessment of the issue is required.
In short, the Tsai administration’s cross-strait policy over the past two years has been successful, and it has decreased Taiwanese businesses being lured to China.
During this period, economic growth has gradually improved and the TAIEX has steadily remained above 10,000 points in sharp contrast to the Chinese index, which has repeatedly dropped below 3,000 points, reaching record lows.
Even without cross-strait talks, Beijing released its unilateral 31 incentives, and without recognizing the “1992 consensus,” Xi still retreated to his “four insistences” following the meeting with Lien.
There is no need for Taiwan to change its cross-strait policy, as it has been proven to be so effective.
Huang Tien-lin is a national policy adviser, and former managing director and chairman of First Commercial Bank.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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