Confronted with US economic and trade attacks and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, China is courting the major partner states of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy
After Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Wuhan on April 27, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (李克強) met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Japan on May 8. Australia is likely to be the next target, as Beijing has been trying to isolate Washington by co-opting the three cornerstones of its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Xi met Modi six times in a day during the latter’s visit to Wuhan, inviting the Indian prime minister for a boat ride on the East Lake and to visit a garden in hopes of relieving tensions between the two nations.
Contrast this with 2014, when Xi celebrated Modi’s birthday at the latter’s residence and then stabbed India in the back during a visit to Sri Lanka. Moreover, how could the Indian prime minister forget the border dispute between Chinese and Indian troops last year when Beijing was trying to build a road there?
Despite its diplomatic language, India has yet to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and its formerly China-friendly neighboring countries — Nepal and Sri Lanka — have also been changing their attitude.
Meanwhile, Li received a warm welcome in Japan after China downplayed the sovereignty dispute over the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台). Xi has focused on sovereignty issues after coming to power, but to compete with the US — China’s chief rival — he has no choice but to make concessions on the Diaoyutais. It is thus evident that Beijing’s claim of not yielding one inch of its land is just empty words. China even eased its ban on food imports from Japan’s radiation-affected areas earlier than Taiwan did.
Moreover, after a delay of more than two-and-a-half years, China, Japan and South Korea held a three-way summit in Tokyo to discuss the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as well as economic cooperation.
Why did Japan and South Korea not ask whether such economic cooperation includes Chinese smashing Japanese vehicles and Beijing’s restrictions on the South Korean entertainment industry?
Is Beijing going to issue an apology for its behavior? Li even had a “sincere talk” with Japanese Emperor Akihito and then invited Abe for a visit, as if the two nations have returned to the time of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere during World War II.
Judging from Abe’s low profile recently, he is clearly worried about Tokyo being marginalized by China, the US and the two Koreas on the North Korea issue, US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and his own domestic troubles.
However, as an experienced and tactful politician, he knows that Beijing could change its mind any time, so he needs to keep a low profile so as not to the give the world the wrong impression.
As a matter of fact, China’s US and Japan policies have been to work with the US against Japan and vice versa, because the two countries are the main rivals of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
It is common knowledge that Li, who has long been oppressed by Xi, does not necessarily follow up on what he says. Western nations should therefore take a more aggressive approach to dealing with China’s “united front” tactics. Abe could have shown Li a hint of sympathy to sow further disunity within the Chinese leadership as some Chinese delegation members report this to Xi.
Xi might take over control of all foreign affairs, but because he is a hillbilly, there is a greater chance that he would make mistakes if he is constantly busy.
Using the old Chinese trick of fomenting distrust or discord among one’s enemies might be more effective than talks. The US should take the same approach to make Xi distrust anyone but himself, and isolate him from others.
As for Australia, it bluntly refused to accept China’s Belt and Road Initiative during Li’s visit last year. China is Australia’s No. 1 overseas market, with natural resources being the major export, but Canberra has taken a tough approach to China’s expansion so far, frustrating Beijing’s efforts.
There is a secret here: After the Cultural Revolution, then-CCP chairman and premier Hua Guofeng (華國鋒) proposed a “Western-style leap forward” policy and built the Baoshan iron and steel factory in Shanghai. It was only allowed to use raw materials from Australia.
As China tried to maintain friendly relations with Western nations as it launched its reform and openness policy, it never expected that it would be looking at Western countries as its main enemy. It seems the Chinese emperor might have to visit Australia himself.
Paul Lin is a political commentator.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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