At the end of US President Donald Trump’s first year in office, the pressure for deglobalization has complicated the partnership between the US and its allies. This dire situation offers China an irresistible opportunity to claim the 21st century for itself, projecting immense economic, political and military power not only to compete with, but also to surpass that of the US.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) outlined his ambitious vision for the country at the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 19th National Congress in October, little attention was given to the diplomatic implications of his agenda.
Upholding China’s commitment to peaceful development, Xi said he would create a “community of common destiny with mankind.”
Choosing pragmatism over ideology and global concerns over national interests, Xi has opened himself up to negotiation and compromise with any government.
In stark contrast with Trump’s “America First” motto, Xi’s pivotal phrase, “creating a community of common destiny,” is a radical departure from
Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) principle of “hiding our capacities and biding our time.”
Xi is keen to exercise China’s leadership in global security, governance, and economic and ecological issues.
Recognizing that Beijing wastes no time in filling power vacuums left behind as Washington pulls back from key arenas, Trump’s pragmatic decision to implement an Indo-Pacific strategy has given rise to new geopolitical dynamics in Asia.
These complex and intriguing entanglements between the US and China are leading to the recalibration of geopolitical relations in Asia. Regional states like Taiwan, Australia, India, Japan and South Korea are quickly repositioning themselves as they are tethered to an isolationist superpower that is against an increasingly assertive China.
The fast-changing landscape becomes more difficult for Taiwan, the stability and security of which is contingent upon Beijing’s diplomatic and maritime posture in the western Pacific. Everyone worries that the US and China might use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from each other, but one should never overlook Taiwan’s capability to assert its own influence at two important levels.
First, geopolitics is determined by ideas as much as by might. Even though China is perceived by the media as a unipolar power in Asia, any attempt by Beijing to destabilize the Taiwan Strait would alienate neighbors and give rise to concern about China’s threat to regional stability.
As long as Taiwan adheres to the norms of a liberal world order and strives to join multilateral organizations, it will make its presence felt, and gain respect and support from the international community.
Second, no country is willing to take sides in a polarized world with China on one side and the US on the other.
On the surface, everything is shifting in China’s favor. China is determined to restrict Taiwanese pro-independence forces through the use of coercive and co-optative measures, stopping Taiwanese participation in multinational organizations and targeting its few diplomatic allies. It appears that China’s rise to power and the reorganization of Asian geopolitics have weakened Taiwan’s autonomy.
However, despite the widespread perception that Taiwan is at the mercy of China and the US, the nation continues to maintain extensive connections worldwide. President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has intensified efforts to advance humanistic and business ties with India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam. This type of informal diplomacy enables the nation to maneuver in a hostile environment.
The Taiwan issue is bound to be at the heart of US-China relations. Seeing China as a competitor, Trump has advocated a more engaging national security strategy that reaffirms the US’ commitment to defend Taiwan and help modernize its military.
Not only did Washington’s National Security Strategy published on Monday erase doubts in Taipei, but it also brought both sides closer in dealing with uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific region.
In light of mounting diplomatic and geopolitical challenges, Taiwan should reach out to global civic society for support, and advance formal and informal alliances with neighboring states to balance any external threat.
Joseph Tse-hei Lee is professor of history at Pace University in New York City.
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