For the past five years, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been pushing the three arrows — monetary, fiscal and structural adjustments — of his Abenomics. Economic performance has been good, as the policy has launched seven consecutive quarters of economic growth and helped the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) win a landslide victory in last month’s general elections.
Abe’s vision — to normalize Japan’s status — has won widespread support among the Japanese public. In last month’s lower house election, the LDP won a majority of seats and together with the Komeito Party, the LDP’s coalition partner, Abe’s government holds a two-thirds parliamentary majority, exceeding the qualified majority required to make constitutional amendments.
As the Japan Restoration Party and other opposition parties are also in favor of amending the constitution, it is only a matter of time before it happens.
There have been reports that Abe might propose the amendments following next year’s LDP chairman-and premiership elections, and follow that with a referendum in 2020, but he has said that there is no timetable.
North Korea can take much of the credit for Abe’s landslide win. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s threats to use nuclear weapons to “sink” Japan, and North Korea over the past couple of months firing missiles over Japan on two occasions have left many Japanese with a feeling of uncertainty and helplessness.
North Korea’s nuclear weapons are posing an existential threat to Japan, which was the main theme of Abe’s election rallies throughout Japan.
He said that the LDP government is dealing firmly with the North Korea issue, that the government has increased the defense budget sharply over the past few years, that it is cooperating closely with the US on sanctions against North Korea, and that it is participating in military exercises with the US and South Korea. Japanese voters found these arguments both legitimate and persuasive.
By playing the North Korea card, Abe reminded voters that the LDP alone had the ability and experience to handle Japan’s national security crisis, and that the elections were a major choice that would determine whether it will be possible to protect Japan, resist the North Korean nuclear threat, and guarantee Japanese’s happiness and way of life.
North Korea’s hostile attitude toward Japan is doing itself a disservice.
During the 1990s, the Japanese government was undecided as to whether it should establish a theater missile defense system, but when North Korea test-fired a Taepodong-1 long-range missile over Japan in August 1998, it pushed the Japanese government to make up its mind.
Since 2000, China’s hostile actions toward Japan, including economic sanctions and dispatching military vessels and aircraft to challenge Japanese sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) — known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan — have been counterproductive.
Some pro-Chinese Japanese, such as former Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan, have had the whimsical notion that Japan should distance itself from the US and “join Asia” by co-opting China in opposition to the US.
Beijing’s threats and intimidating behavior caused these efforts to fail completely and lose public support, and indirectly led to Abe’s comeback in 2012.
In 2013, Beijing unilaterally announced an East Asian air defense identification zone, raising tensions in the region and prompting then-US president Barack Obama to announce that the Diaoyutais were included in the scope of the US-Japan security treaty, causing Beijing to lose more than it gained.
China’s rise, its hegemonic behavior and threats to Japan have caused US-Japan security cooperation to become even closer.
Japan was the first stop in US President Donald Trump’s ongoing visit to Asia, and the US places great importance on Japan’s participation in the maintenance of peace and security in the West Pacific.
Abe and Trump have a close relationship built on mutual respect and a friendly private relationship — during Trump’s Tokyo visit, they played a round of golf in addition to discussing security issues.
Abe is a passionate Japanese nationalist as well as a strong leader. He displays ideals, a clear vision and an effort to boost the security of Japan and elevate its status.
He also wants to escape US restraints on Japan and initiate a constitutional amendment process to remove the restrictions placed on Japan’s defense by Article 9 of its constitution.
An amended constitution would reform the Japanese self-defense forces to a national defense military. In addition to a qualified majority of two-thirds in both houses of parliament, successfully completing the required constitutional amendments also requires approval in a national referendum. Opinion polls show that a majority opposes amending the pacifist constitution, but Abe seems confident that if he bides his time, he will be able to convince more voters.
Abe’s appeal to Japanese voters is that Japan’s pacifist constitution was forced onto the nation by the occupying US forces in 1950 and that Japan must become a normal nation where its citizens decide what its constitution should look like.
Abe might be able to use the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games to display Japan’s strength and international status. If Japan holds the constitutional referendum after the Games, the amendments will easily gain majority support.
Parris Chang is professor emeritus of political science at Pennsylvania State University and president of the Taiwan Institute for Political, Economic and Strategic Studies.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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