China is not invading
The top story of Thursday’s Taipei Times is dangerous and irresponsible (“China plans 2020 invasion: researcher,” Oct. 5, page 1). Not once did the story cite any sources for the claim that China will invade Taiwan in 2020.
Based on all available evidence, there is no reason to believe that China will invade Taiwan. China and Taiwan have not had a military battle since the 1970s. In other words, there has been no shooting for over 35 years.
China knows that many Taiwanese and Taiwanese military personnel believe an eventual Chinese victory would result if war broke out, yet China still has not invaded.
China has said it will invade if Taiwan declares independence. Taiwan has not declared independence, has not changed its name from the “Republic of China,” nor changed its Olympic team name, so the independence justification of invasion is currently absent.
Yes, China is building island military bases, has one aircraft carrier and is building up its military generally. That does not mean it will invade. In fact, China has had missiles pointed at Taiwan for 35 years, but it has never used them.
Taiwan currently has a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) president. China has not invaded. In the year 2000, Taiwan elected its first DPP president. China did not invade.
In 1996, Taiwan re-elected Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) as president after he said Taiwan and China had a special state-to-state relationship. China did not invade.
In 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collided with a larger, slower US spy plane and the Chinese pilot died. No shots were fired. There was no subsequent war.
It is impossible to discern how stable China is internally.
The rumors coming from China’s leadership elite are that the rich and powerful in China want their children to live in the US and Canada.
If people are already rich and powerful in China, why would they leave? Possibly, from their perspective on the inside, they perceive instability.
Yes, China is building island military bases. This does not mean that it will invade, as it has been building up their military since the end of World War II and have yet to invade.
Moreover, Taiwan and China have strong business ties. Both Taiwan and China have prospered economically under the “status quo” that has existed for 35 years.
Business leaders have a certain amount of influence with government leaders.
Chinese and Taiwanese business leaders care about money more than anything, as evidenced by the crackdown on corruption in China and the numerous business corruption stories here in Taiwan.
They do not care about the patriotic rhetoric of uniting all people of Chinese origin, as though the ruling party was some dynasty ruling by the mandate of heaven.
There is no economic motivation for China to invade Taiwan. China is a fully integrated and important member of the international community and the second-largest economy in the world.
They have no need to risk their current status with war.
Andres Chang
Taipei
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