At the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) 17th National Congress on Sunday, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) announced her intention to initiate a new round of constitutional reform.
This is a matter of significance that will lay the foundation for Taiwan’s future. Let us put aside political views or calculations, and do the political math first.
Constitutional reform has to go through at least three critical tests.
First, as Article 174 of the Republic of China Constitution stipulates, amendments to the Constitution shall be made upon the proposal of no less than one-fourth of the members of the Legislative Yuan. The Legislative Yuan has 113 seats, so one-fourth of the total number is about 29 seats. The DPP holds 69 seats, and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) holds 35, with one of its legislators being suspended. So either party is able to propose a constitutional amendment.
Second, an amendment to the Constitution shall be made by a resolution of no less than three-fourths of the legislative members present at a meeting — with a minimum of no less than three-fourths (or 85 seats) of the total seats.
Since the KMT holds more than a quarter of the total seats, it is capable of blocking a proposal. So a constitutional amendment cannot be passed at the legislature without cross-party negotiations.
Third, after the Legislative Yuan passes a resolution, it must be referred to a national referendum six months after the government’s announcement of the proposed amendment. The referendum needs to be passed by more than half of the total number of voters.
For example, in last year’s presidential election, the number of eligible voters was 18,782,991, so a referendum threshold would be 9,391,496 votes. In the face of such a high threshold, a proposed amendment can only pass a referendum with a strong social consensus.
In terms of the actual content of constitutional reform, it can generally be divided into four major categories.
The first is lowering the voting age from 20 to 18, and there is significant consensus on the issue.
The second is the government’s constitutional system. Almost everyone is critical of the current system, calling for a new one in which officials’ power matches their accountability. However, there is little consensus on the issue of whether Taiwan should go in the direction of a presidential system or a Cabinet system.
The third is the issue of malapportionment, or the imbalance of votes and seats in the legislature relative to the size of constituencies. The adjustment of the legislative electoral method includes the increase of the total number of legislative seats, as well as the distribution of seats.
The fourth is adding human rights articles to the Constitution, whose scope is wide. Writing certain human rights issues into the Constitution is like making a declaration, but there will clearly be disagreements over certain issues.
As for how the DPP can pass the three tests and how many of the four categories can be written into the Constitution, and whether it will directly make a new constitution and even build a new nation, the questions are beyond the scope of this article.
The previous seven rounds of constitutional reform were full of political calculations. After serving two terms, or eight years in office, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) surprisingly issued an open letter on the day of the DPP congress, saying that Taiwan’s current “semi-presidential system” is nonsense and calling for a Cabinet system.
By saying that, did Chen admit that he was a nonsense president for eight years?
Hu Wen-hui is a media commentator.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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