Balancing new alliances
Last week might have brought a tectonic shift in how Taiwan deals with US President Donald Trump’s administration.
Flanked at the White House by the US’ most senior leaders and joined by Trump, Foxconn chairman Terry Gou (郭台銘) announced a massive investment in the US.
His plan for a new plant under the Foxconn banner fits with Trump’s self-proclaimed mission to create new jobs for Americans. Trump made a point of this when he said, in an off-script comment at the East Room event: “If I didn’t get elected, [Gou] definitely would not be spending US$10 billion.”
Under normal circumstances, a major Taiwanese company investing in the US would be cause for celebration. Taiwan’s economic links with the US are the lifeblood of its strategic relationship.
However, things are different with Trump. His penchant for personal politics and dollar-centric way of measuring success means that Gou, a private Taiwanese citizen, will have his ear in a way that Taiwan’s government might find itself lacking. He may even become a new center of Taiwan’s power in Washington.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was already at a disadvantage with the US administration. Despite the brief flicker of hope from her post-election telephone call with Trump, she is excluded from the one-to-one relationship building that other world leaders can pursue at Mar-a-Lago or the White House.
Gou stepped in to this unusual opening, a global businessman reaching out to a “businessman president,” unencumbered by diplomatic complexities that face Taiwan’s political leadership.
However, what should make Gou’s investment especially significant is that he is putting it into the southeastern part of the state of Wisconsin. More specifically, it appears headed straight for Wisconsin’s first congressional district, home of the powerful House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan.
Ryan’s district is not the kind of place that usually gets these kinds of investments, let alone one projected to create 13,000 new jobs. It is an astounding win for him that will play well with voters. The move even led Wisconsin’s governor to proclaim a new tech-sounding brand for the region — “Wisconn Valley.”
What this means is that Gou will have astounding influence over Ryan. Ordinarily, being able to pull strings with the speaker’s office would be a special privilege. In today’s political climate it means even more, possibly giving Gou influence over Trump himself.
How could this be? Trump is in a precarious position as president. New assertions about his campaign’s involvement with Russia come up almost every week. Never in recent memory has the idea of impeachment come up so early in a new administration, and this is where Ryan comes in.
The US Constitution vests powers of impeachment in the House of Representatives, which Ryan leads. Without his active support, efforts toward impeachment will not go anywhere. Added to Ryan’s well-known desire to accommodate Trump, he would now fear losing Foxconn’s commitment to his home district if Trump ever loses his job.
How Gou will use his newly earned leverage remains to be seen. He is not an ally of Taiwan’s current administration. He likely differs with the administration on Taiwan’s future course, especially as it relates to cross-strait relations. He has even publicly flirted with the idea of running for president in 2020.
Tsai would be wise to reassess the government’s voice and influence in Washington. Trump’s election changed the paradigm for Taiwan and Foxconn’s investment may now affect how the two sides communicate.
She will need counterweights — possibly other heavy hitters from the business world — who can carry her message. Without this, or perhaps a new working relationship with Gou, her ability to impact US policy could face unusual constraints.
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