The meeting in Florida last week between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) could still mean anything, as some things might not yet have been reported, while others might be reinterpreted several times.
However, one thing is clear enough. The relative uneventfulness of the meeting is a complete reversal of expectations when measuring likelihoods in terms of Trump’s own China rhetoric hitherto. This — of course — might be the good news in what is otherwise a fairly dark period.
Just consider Trump’s recorded attitude, his tweets and his election campaign: All concerning China was negative, all was vindictive, much was unfair, none was diplomatic.
Now we witness a really important first meeting of the two most powerful men in the world, representing opposite positions on the spectrum of political ideologies, but also at natural odds with each other on such practical basics as Taiwan; foreign trade and protectionism; North Korea and the South China Sea generally; the whole gamut of environmental issues — although of course Trump was dismissive previously of threats to the global environment; the role of Japan in global and East Asian strategies; and so on.
We might have expected one spark to light at least a warming fire. Indeed, Xi began by urging cooperation with the US on trade and investment, and immediately suggested a return visit to China by Trump, much as if nothing was at large that was fundamentally contentious. No spark of contention seems to have been kindled. Why?
First, Trump had already played a huge card by initiating the dramatic US high-tech strike on a major Syrian military base. Not only did this take the wind from the sails of other issues at a world level, it served as a handy reminder of US power, sophistication of military capability and a seeming new willingness to act quickly. This was a nice combination to generate lowness of key on at least the part of Xi.
Second, it is possible that both leaders are being equally well-advised. The issues are highly complex and of major importance to global commerce and security
Third, it is also possible that Trump dictated the tenor of the meeting and chose a reversal of expectations to see just what sort of animal this China led by Xi really is.
Surely most of us have had reason to wonder just how much Trump knew about the complexities of Chinese history and politics say six months or so ago.
What did he know about Taiwan? Possibly what we have just witnessed is an example of the Trumpian learning process.
We can even have a bit of sympathy about this last point. Within the US media China has long been “othered” as darkly foreign, unfathomably communist and untrustworthy, and Trump might well have regarded his own election victory as highly unlikely.
This would not be a good background for a considered position on China.
Fourth, the meeting might well be our best evidence so far of Trump’s presidential style — loud and twittering rhetoric followed by a shock reversal or incident (ie, Syria) followed by a new position and twittering rhetoric that moves the Trump White House another step beyond the aims and claims of his earlier campaign toward a longer-term strategy of success and survival over at least a first, if not even a second, presidential term.
How the other big items such as Mexico, protectionism, social welfare and North Korea will pan out can not be at all certain yet.
However, we can expect no straight road, but much more of the sort of thesis-antithesis dialectic that he seems to be mastering at present.
And we should not shrug off the importance of subtlety lying beneath bombast. A really fine example is the unexpectedness of the entertainment laid on at the Florida meeting by Trump’s little granddaughter, when she quietly sang the traditional Chinese song Mo Li Hua (茉莉花, Jasmine Flower) and recited the Three Character Classic (三字經) before Xi and his wife.
Many outside of Chinese culture might have missed some of the significance of this. The song in various versions is an invocation of the greatness and sophistication of Chinese history and might readily be seen as both an acknowledgment of past greatness and an indication of things to come — the forging of a new Chinese presence based on a merging of Chinese traditions, recent communist history and the breakthroughs of our present time.
In the 18th century, when Mo Li Hua was composed as verse, it was not intended merely as a children’s school song, but as something more central to Chinese manner and sensibility.
So, Trump really did pull out his trump card at the right moment with great effect.
It might be that nonevents are really important. Trumps sitting with modestly clasped hands between knees, his grandchild doing a great job of cultural exchange and intergenerational understanding, the Chinese guests looking not just impressed, but very much at home and appreciative.
This quick video glance is worth millions of tweets. Expect more of the unexpected from Trump.
Ian Inkster is professorial research associate at the Centre of Taiwan Studies, SOAS, University of London and editor of the international journal History of Technology.
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