The Ministry of National Defense released its third Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) on Thursday and there was as much fuss about what it contained as what it did not.
Under an amendment to Article 31 of the National Defense Act (國防法) passed in 2008, the ministry must submit a QDR within 10 months of a new administration taking office to review defense strategies and set the policy direction for the next four years.
Much attention was focused on the latest review being the first produced under a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration, but there was not a lot in it that was not already known or speculated.
Lawmakers — including DPP members — complained that there was not much difference between the new report and the one delivered in 2013.
The big question is whether President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration can achieve the goals outlined in the review in either the short or long term, including boosting military spending by almost 50 percent to 3 percent of GDP next year, compared with 2.05 percent of GDP last year.
The government has not spent that much on defense since the late 1990s, and the DPP’s legislative majority means that it should be able to pass whatever defense spending bills it wants, unlike former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) years in office, when the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and its legislative caucus obstructed him at every turn.
While Tsai has made the development of a local defense industry one of her priorities, it is a goal that would need more than just the eight years she could be in office, and there are many other pressing projects that also need a lot of funding.
However, higher defense spending could be a boon to the nation’s high-tech industries and economy.
On the ministry’s wish list are stealth fighter jets with short or vertical takeoff and landing capabilities, the by-now-perennial indigenous submarine fleet, improved air-defense missile and road-mobile missile systems and a fleet of uncrewed aerial vehicles.
Much of the technology for such items is not available in Taiwan, and efforts to obtain it from overseas have been hampered by the unwillingness of potential suppliers to upset their ties with Beijing, as efforts to get a submarine-building program under way have demonstrated over the past decade.
The low-key handover of two US Navy frigates last week shows that even the nation’s main ally remains wary of treading on Beijing’s toes when its own national interests are at stake — like the meeting set for next month between the US and Chinese presidents.
Even if the ministry wins the funding it wants, it faces two even bigger issues: the continued push-back in its efforts to develop an all-volunteer military and the continuing inability of retired top brass to resist the lure of junkets to China and get-togethers with their retired counterparts from China’s People’s Liberation Army, which makes it harder to reinforce the message among younger, active-duty personnel that China remains the nation’s primary enemy.
An all-volunteer force was a key pledge of former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who planned to end compulsory service starting from Jan. 1 last year. In 2013, and again in 2015, the defense ministry had to alter its timetable because of recruitment difficulties.
In December last year, the ministry said it was confident it could build an all-volunteer military force and finally stop conscription by next year.
Given the difficulties it has encountered so far, as well as the nation’s declining birthrate, the ministry and the government as a whole must do a lot more to make a long-term military career — or even a short period of enlistment — more enticing. It is not just a matter of throwing more money at potential recruits or appealing to national pride and honor; they must see that they would achieve something of value through their service.
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