Ever since Taiwan’s first direct presidential vote in 1996, China has been playing an increasingly decisive role in the nation’s elections at various levels. Its relentless effort to ensure that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) maintains a monopoly on cross-strait dialogue and exchanges has helped the party win several elections.
That is why it came as little surprise when reports circulated on Wednesday that KMT Chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), who is running against five other candidates in the party’s chairperson election on May 20, was planning to boost her campaign by visiting China next month.
It is likely that whichever candidate gains Beijing’s tacit endorsement would have a greater chance of taking over the reins of the party for the next four years.
However, it would be dangerous and self-destructive for KMT members to elect a Beijing-backed candidate without considering the bigger picture: the 2020 presidential race.
KMT leaders have on numerous occasions said that the primary goal of every political party is to gain control of the government.
Given the disparity between Taiwanese voters’ expectations of a president and the “characteristics” Beijing deems essential for political leadership, it is safe to say that China’s favored candidate in the KMT’s chairperson race is unlikely to be elected into the Presidential Office in 2020.
However, it seems that the KMT is blind to this fact, despite its two humiliating electoral defeats in 2014 and last year.
Perceptions of China among Taiwanese have changed significantly since 2014 and they no longer see Beijing as a land of opportunity. A considerable number of Taiwanese have lauded the continuous decline in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan — something that the KMT paints as an economic catastrophe.
The KMT must realize that China has become an electoral liability rather than an asset. It is the Democratic Progressive Party’s potential failure to resolve domestic problems, rather than its inability to establish dialogue with Beijing, that would most likely sink its electoral prospects in 2020.
That being said, more doubts emerged over the KMT’s likelihood of realizing its dangerous relationship with China after former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), speaking at a forum in Washington on Tuesday, denied that it was the KMT’s cross-strait policy that led to its defeat in last year’s presidential election.
“I absolutely do not agree with the assumption that the reason behind the KMT’s two electoral defeats was its cross-strait policy. Conducting exchanges with China only brings benefits and they are considerable,” Ma said.
Ma, who served as KMT chairman for two terms, said the party’s loss in 2014 was the result of a string of food safety scandals, while last year’s defeat was due to its last-minute decision to replace its presidential candidate, Hung, with New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫).
Although the KMT’s cozy relationship with Beijing during the Ma administration might not be the only reason for the party’s electoral defeats, it was certainly a cause for concern among Taiwanese voters.
That Ma remains out of touch with mainstream public opinion about cross-strait relations makes one wonder if the KMT will ever realize the real factors that cost it the past two elections, or if it will continue to cling to its old ways until it is too late.
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