In his televised New Year’s address on Jan. 1, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced that the country has reached the last stages in its quest to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). There are indeed signs that North Korea has completed its preparations to launch ICBMs and from Jan. 20 to Jan. 22, the US, South Korean and Japanese navies held joint early-warning drills in which each of the three countries sent out Aegis-equipped destroyers in an exercise to detect and track ICBMs.
The administrations of former US presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama “outsourced” the denuclearization of North Korea to China, but to no avail. The US has been hoping that Beijing would put pressure on North Korea, but Beijing has only pretended to take action, because if the North collapses, there will be a unified pro-US Korea on its border.
How will US President Donald Trump respond to the North’s provocations?
On Jan. 2, he criticized China in one of his tweets, saying that “China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea.”
At a congressional hearing, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, directed strong criticism at China, saying it was not a reliable partner and that the US would not be able to continue accepting empty promises that it would push for North Korean reform without implementing those promises.
Chinese military hawks have a decisive influence over Chinese-North Korean relations and they feel that Pyongyang functions as a security buffer and a bargaining chip that can be used to keep the US, South Korea and Japan in check.
In September last year, a US and a South Korean think tank issued a joint report revealing that Ma Xiaohong (馬曉紅), chairman of Hongxiang Industrial Development Co in Dandong, China, had used the company for many years to provide the North with capital and materials to manufacture nuclear arms. It was suspected of having sold advanced technology that could be used for military purposes, in addition to violating UN sanctions by importing large volumes of North Korean coal, the nation’s most important source of foreign currency.
The firm is actually a front for the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) international liaison department. Ma is a deputy to the National People’s Congress for Liaoning Province and his firm is supported behind the scenes by both the party and the military.
Under US pressure, including a criminal lawsuit against Ma filed by the US Department of Justice and the US Department of the Treasury freezing 25 bank accounts for 21 companies suspected of involvement, the CCP’s Ministry of State Security was forced to arrest Ma and other top officials and close down Hongxiang and its affiliates.
Trump understands perfectly well that the North Korean nuclear issue cannot be “outsourced” to Beijing. In addition to putting full force behind sanctions and pressure on North Korea, he will take a tough approach to Chinese banks and businesses that covertly assist North Korea.
Although Kim is bragging that North Korea is “becoming a nuclear power,” he will not be able to prevent Trump from applying a surgical strike to destroy the North’s nuclear facilities or a decapitation strike to overturn the Kim dynasty if they were to fire ICBMs.
If that time comes, will Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) dare come to North Korea’s help against the US?
Parris Chang is president of the Taiwan Institute for Political, Economic and Strategic Studies and a former deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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