US president-elect Donald Trump is to be inaugurated on Friday. He brings with him a complex mix of businessman, TV celebrity and political novice. His words and behavior in the election campaign, his policies — running counter in almost all instances to those of US President Barack Obama — and his maverick approach to politics have the world looking on in anticipation as he prepares to assume one of the most powerful positions in the world.
Taiwan is cautiously optimistic, but also worried about the harm some of his decisions might cause the nation.
There is hope that Taiwan-US relations might take a positive step following Trump’s decision to accept a congratulatory phone call from President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). However, there is also concern over what will come of talks between the US and China, given Trump’s apparent willingness to use the “one China” policy as a bargaining chip for exchange rates and trade policies. Politicians are concerned that Taiwan’s interests may end up being sacrificed.
Businesspeople and politicians approach problems in different ways. Trump prides himself on his skills as a dealmaker. Unhappy with China’s policies, he is starting the bidding high, placing Beijing’s “one China” policy on the table from the get-go. This is a classic business negotiation strategy. It is possible that Trump’s taking to Twitter to tout his intention to renegotiate the policy is a business trick: Start high to ensure that you obtain the best possible advantage going forward. It should not be read as a non-negotiable position, just like his many campaign promises that are unlikely to be followed after his inauguration.
Trump has said that he would scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) because it is a symbol of Washington helping big business at the expense of the rights of low-salaried workers. This talk gives Trump the support of working-class families, but the US was not expected to gain much economic benefit from the TPP: It was always more about the strategic advantage for the US against Asia by curtailing the effect of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Trump seems to think that if the US overturns the TPP it can negotiate bilateral trade agreements with individual countries and use its position to get more beneficial terms.
The loss of the TPP is bad news for Taiwan, which has few options when it comes to free-trade agreements. Taiwan’s best-case scenario would have been to join both the TPP and the RCEP. Without the TPP, the nation is at the mercy of China. Signing bilateral agreements with individual countries would take a lot of time and would leave Taiwan open to pressure from Beijing, as well as put the nation at a competitive disadvantage, with other nations enjoying favorable tariff and trade conditions when Taiwan does not.
Trump will soon be in the White House. Taipei must consider what policy directions he is likely to take and plan for each and every possibility. During Obama’s time in office, Taiwan-US relations have sailed in the shallows. The nation has to be prepared for the possibility that, with Trump at the helm, it is about to enter some very choppy waters.
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