On Wednesday last week, Sao Tome and Principe, acting under China’s influence, announced that it was breaking diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This development comes in the run-up to President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) visit next month to Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador, with a possible stopover in the US.
Beijing’s move is reminiscent of its establishment of diplomatic relations with the Gambia on March 17, just as then-president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) was visiting Belize.
The background to the two ruptures is also similar, the most important factor being the pressure exerted by hawks within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). On Feb. 25, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅), speaking on President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) authority, said at a forum in the US that Tsai should “accept the provision in Taiwan’s own Constitution that the mainland and Taiwan belong to one and the same China.”
Since only a sovereign nation can have a national constitution, Wang’s mention of “Taiwan’s Constitution” drew fire from CCP hawks. Wang was then forced to shore up his own position by playing hardball with Taiwan. He quickly moved to establish ties with the Gambia, regardless of the anguish it would cause Ma — a die-hard advocate of “one China.”
Wang recently came under pressure once again. First, he failed to foresee that US president-elect Donald Trump would win the US presidential election. Then, on Dec. 6, Trump had a telephone conversation with Tsai, breaking with historical convention and calling her “the President of Taiwan.” These developments once again put Wang in a shaky position.
Following the telephone call, Trump said during a TV interview: “I fully understand the ‘one China’ policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a ‘one China’ policy.”
This prompted further criticism from CCP hawks, who accused Xi of making mistakes in his policies with regard to the US. Consequently, Chinese leaders were compelled to respond quickly by engineering a break in diplomatic ties between Taiwan and Sao Tome, even if it cost China US$200 million to achieve this.
The incident shows that Xi’s hold on power is not as firm as outsiders might imagine. The anti-Xi faction is still looking for ways to hurt him between now and the CCP’s 19th National Congress in autumn next year.
China’s latest move is also meant as a warning for Trump that he must not support Tsai anymore or Taiwan will lose even more diplomatic partners. Beijing’s purpose in causing a break in relations between Taiwan and Sao Tome is not to force Tsai to recognize the so-called “1992 consensus.” Tsai has already been president for half a year, so if China wanted to use such tactics to force her hand, it would have done so long ago instead of waiting until now.
Actually, China wants to avoid putting the cat among the pigeons, since it is worried that Taiwanese independence advocates, under the impression that Trump supports them, will take advantage of the situation to put more pressure on Tsai.
Ever since Tsai was sworn in on May 20, independence advocates have been criticizing her for being too soft in her dealings with China, even picking People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) — a “pan-blue” figure — to represent Taiwan at the APEC forum in Lima. However, Tsai’s moderate approach did not stop Sao Tome from cutting relations with Taiwan.
Independence supporters might now call on Minister of Foreign Affairs David Lee (李大維) to resign and be replaced by a “deep green” minister. If that happens, Chinese hawks will get louder, putting more pressure on Xi to use military means to force Taiwan to unite with China. Retired People’s Liberation Army lieutenant general Wang Hongguang (王洪光) is one such hawk. However, Xi does not want to use force at all, because if he started down that path it would be hard to stop.
Another point is that Trump’s national security advisers are all Taiwan-friendly figures, and they will sympathize with Tsai’s present difficulties. Originally Tsai was not going to meet Trump while transiting in the US on her way to Central America, but now she has a chance of meeting him.
If Trump or some of his top advisers meet Tsai, their meeting will show even stronger support for her, and that would make things even harder for Xi. For this reason, China held off for a few days instead of immediately establishing diplomatic relations with Sao Tome. Also, by picking a country in far-away Africa with a population of only about 150,000, China has avoided causing too big a shock for Taiwan.
I said last year that there would be no major upset in cross-strait relations if Tsai became president, because Xi needs Tsai to keep Taiwanese independence supporters in check. However, Trump’s Taiwan-friendly moves are making Tsai worried that she will not be able restrain the independence advocates. That is because if there is an avalanche of diplomatic break-offs, it would prove that the words “Republic of China” are useless, and that would strengthen the rationale for independence. China would not be so stupid as to let that happen.
For most Taiwanese, the break in relations with Sao Tome is not a big deal and they do not feel that they can do anything about it. It is not a big deal, because they do not even know where Sao Tome is, and they feel helpless because this is hardly the first time that China has put the squeeze on Taiwan.
Besides, many people feel that Taiwan’s diplomatic partners are just for show, but cost a lot of money to maintain. Consequently, they do not care if any nation breaks off diplomatic relations, as long as Taiwan can maintain its substantial relations with the US and Japan.
So, the end of diplomatic ties between Taiwan and Sao Tome only serves to make Taiwanese dislike China even more — not that Beijing cares. People will not criticize Tsai for it, because she has been very low-key about her telephone call with Trump and has not provoked China. For these reasons, Taiwanese will also not be telling Tsai to recognize the “1992 consensus.”
Taiwanese will definitely not expect the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to resolve the current cross-strait stalemate, because with Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) as chairwoman, the KMT has drifted further away from mainstream opinion, just like the New Party did before it.
However, KMT Vice Chairman Chen Cheng-hsiang (陳鎮湘) and pan-blue mayors and county commissioners might join China’s communist leaders in scolding Tsai while they are visiting China.
Fan Shih-ping is a professor in the Graduate Institute of Political Science at National Taiwan Normal University.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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