Judging from pre-election opinion polls, US president-elect Donald Trump won the election against the odds. Now that we are faced with a president Trump, what should Taiwan’s next step be?
There is no one on Taiwan’s political stage who could be said to really know Trump. If President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and her administration made the same assessment as everyone else seems to have prior to the election, the question now is whether the Presidential Office, the Cabinet, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and national security agencies have made any preparations to deal with the situation.
The view that Washington will abandon Taiwan is not new; it has been around for decades. The view was espoused in a Nov. 10, 2011, New York Times opinion piece, titled “To save our economy, ditch Taiwan” by Paul Kane, a former international security fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Kane suggested that US President Barack Obama end arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for China writing off the US debt it held, which then-stood at US$1.14 trillion.
Kane said that “the island’s absorption into mainland China is inevitable,” adding that it would be better to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China.
This line of argument has been repudiated by the US Department of State since the US severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979 and it has constantly reiterated that US policy toward Taiwan is based on the “one China” policy, the three joint Sino-US communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act.
The question is: Will Trump’s administration recognize the framework created by these historical and legal documents?
In order for Trump to maintain the support of the white working class, it is crucial he shows them that he is not afraid of political incorrectness. He must also demonstrate that he can accuse the Washington establishment of not understanding the hardship of the American people, while completely disregarding whether the Washington elite holds the moral high ground.
To give one example, the democracy and freedom of Taiwanese should be invaluable to Americans and something that cannot be sacrificed to save trade relations between the US and China, which is a common view among politicians.
However, Trump is unlikely to be the stereotypical president. He has not been a part of the Taiwan-US framework and neither he nor his family are part of the Washington establishment. All that Trump is interested in are his popularity ratings and the interests of Wall Street, so perhaps Taiwan will turn out to have some monetary value.
In terms of trade, Taiwan for several years has sought to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and it has spent many years developing the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with the US, holding six rounds of talks since 1995. Talks were suspended over the issue of US beef imports and were not restarted until 2013, following the 2012 amendment to the Act Governing Food Safety and Sanitation (食品安全衛生管理法) that allowed the import of US beef.
Since then, three rounds of talks have been held and although Taiwan has showed strong interest, TIFA is not focused on creating a free-trade area between the two nations, as this is done via free-trade agreements. The problem now is that Trump will surely demand that Taiwan makes even more concessions.
If that is how he will deal with Japan and South Korea, has Tsai and her administration thought of what bargaining chips they have at their disposal?
In terms of Taiwan-US relations — in addition to interest groups promoting Taiwan’s interests continuing their lobbying efforts — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should establish a foreign-affairs network including Americans of Taiwanese descent within the Republican Party and the US government.
The most obvious example would be Elaine Chao (趙小蘭), the first US Cabinet secretary of Asian descent. She was born in Taipei and served as secretary of labor in the administration of former US president George W. Bush from 2001 to 2009 and deputy secretary of transportation during former US president George H.W. Bush’s time in office. Even more importantly, she is married to US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and is working inside the Trump camp.
Former governor of Washington Gary Locke was born in China, but being an American, he holds democratic values and could be another long-term target.
Trump will be busy in the White House and it would be reasonable if he hands over the handling of Taiwanese affairs to someone of Asian descent.
Finally, in terms of arms sales, Trump has expressed a lot of opinions regarding the US’ relationship with Japan and South Korea.
He has said on several occasions in this context that “the user pays,” so Taiwan should give serious consideration to whether it should increase its budget for US arms purchases.
Albert Shihyi Chiu is an associate professor of political science at Tunghai University.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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