Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has come as a bombshell for Taiwan. US policy toward Taiwan has remained mostly unchanged since 1949. The only major changes took place under then-US president Richard Nixon in the 1970s, when the Cold War was still on and the US needed to build closer relations with Communist China, finally breaking diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of Beijing during former US president Jimmy Carter’s term in office.
US policy has otherwise remained fairly stable, no matter which president occupies the White House. However, Trump is a political oddball, and there are many ways in which US foreign policy could change under his presidency.
The white blue-collar voters who support Trump have largely lost out under globalization, so they are not keen on free-trade agreements. Consequently, the US might stop promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership and go back to protectionism. Trump has also said that maintaining US military bases in Japan is too expensive, so it is uncertain whether the US will maintain a strong military presence in East Asia and it is unrealistic to expect the US armed forces to come to Taiwan’s defense.
If Trump does what his supporters want, his administration might repeatedly run into friction with nations like China that rely on low-cost, low-tech exports. Taiwanese investments in Chinese and Southeast Asian factories might also be hit hard.
However, crisis and opportunity are two sides of the same coin. If Trump does not want to keep so many troops stationed in East Asia, the US might stop blocking Taiwan’s and Japan’s efforts to develop weapons and boost their military preparedness. In that case, the US would no longer prevent Japan from amending its pacifist constitution and building its self-defense forces into full-fledged armed forces. As the US cuts its garrisons in East Asia, it might even sell more arms to Taiwan, given that Trump cares more about boosting the economy than maintaining a strategic balance.
Restrictions on immigration and trade are not very beneficial for white blue-collar voters, because white workers are unwilling to do some kinds of work and they will also complain if trade restrictions lead to big price hikes. The Trump administration will need to attract investment to create job opportunities, so it will probably offer incentives for overseas investors.
If white blue-collar workers feel tangible benefits from investment by Taiwanese businesses, Trump might adopt much more Taiwan-friendly policies.
US aspirations to rebuild its manufacturing industry could be a stepping stone for Taiwan’s new “go east” policy. US experience in manufacturing, especially in light industry, has a gap of many years, which Taiwan’s experience could help to fill.
Trump likes to keep his cards close to his chest, so there are many unknowns about how he will govern and form his government team. Even before becoming president, he has already offended a lot of mainstream US Republicans.
Even with the Republican Party in control of both the US House and Senate, US Congress would not necessarily cooperate with Trump. On the contrary, mainstream Republicans might use their power in US Congress to make Trump adopt the policies they want.
It is unknown what kind of a policy will take shape in relation to Taiwan and China. The Taiwanese government will have to keep an eye on developments and people familiar with US culture will be called upon to interpret them so that the government can come up with appropriate policy responses.
Martin Oei is a political commentator based in Hong Kong.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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