Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent visit to China created international headlines, as he seemed to upend his country’s longtime relationship with the US.
Duterte was angry at Washington’s criticism of his no-hold- barred policy of eliminating drug users and dealers, and sought to pre-emptively warn Obama against raising the issue on the sidelines of a regional conference both were attending. Duterte felt that Obama would have no right to lecture the president of a sovereign country like the Philippines.
Therefore, there were signs that the new political order in the Philippines was going to be different, indeed radically different, when it came to the country’s relationship with the US. This would be reflected in a refashioning of Manila’s relationship with Beijing.
If Duterte’s rhetoric during his China visit were truly reflected in the Philippines’ relationship with both China and the US, by way of a new friendly relationship with China and aggressive disawoval of a long-standing, multifaceted and deep relationship with the US, it would not only shake up the relationship between Manila and Washington, but also the existing regional political and security architecture.
To understand this, one needs to go over what Duterte said in Beijing, unless one were to simply dismiss the Philippine president as raving mad for radically altering his country’s ties with the US, including their security alliance, which go as far back as the early 1950s.
Moreover, the Philippines’ relations with China had earlier soured so badly over the issue of sovereignty claims in the South China Sea that Manila took Beijing to an arbitration tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands, which upheld the Philippines’ claim.
Duterte became president against such a backdrop of hostility between the Philippines and China, with the US committed to the Philippines all the way.
Despite all this, the new president, during his China visit, declared with gusto, it would appear, his country’s “separation” from the US.
It is worth quoting Duterte at some length on his views and the proposed policy change he indicated.
“No more American influence. No more American [military exercises]. It’s time to say goodbye, my friend. Your stay in my country was for your own benefit,” he said.
Duterte is also nursing strong personal hurt over criticism of his policy of eliminating the country’s drug culture.
“I will not go to America anymore,” he said.
“I will just be insulted there,” he said, once again referring to US President Barack Obama as the “son of a whore.”
He also seemed to blame the US for the Philippines’ anti-China policy before he became president.
“What kept us from China was not our making. I will chart a new course,” Duterte said.
On the contentious issue of sovereignty in the South China Sea, his new policy will delight China and take the wind out of the US’ strategy of building up a regional coalition to contain China.
Duterte simply dismissed the Hague court’s ruling against China as “a piece of paper with four corners.”
“The arbitral award gives us the right. China has the historical right. And they’re insisting. In this situation, do we argue, or do we just talk? I would say, let us put it off to some other day,” he said.
In his speech at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Duterte heaped insults — unusual in diplomatic parlance — on Americans.
“Americans are loud, sometimes rowdy. Their larynx is not adjusted to civility,” he said, even mimicking the American accent.
He called them “discourteous people,” adding that it is wise not to do business with them because “that is the surest way of losing your money.”
He seemingly announced a new international alignment to include China, Russia and the Philippines.
“I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will go to Russia and talk to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and tell him there are three of us against the world — China, Philippines and Russia. It’s the only way,” Duterte said.
His four-day visit to China included meeting 400 businesspeople. China did not disappoint him, on paper at least.
Philippine Secretary of Trade and Industry Ramon Lopez said that deals worth US$13.5 billion were signed during the trip.
The idea seems to be to restructure the Philippines’ economic relationship to tap into Chinese investments in infrastructure and expand access into that market.
This kind of proposed restructuring of an overall relationship, when the Philippines was almost dependent on the US from colonial times since 1898 and after gaining independence in 1946, is rather unusual. Therefore, it will be a difficult, even problematic exercise.
So far, according to US media reports, Washington has not been formally notified of the level or kind of “separation” Duterte has publicly announced.
Going by the long-established ties between the two countries, it will be a herculean task for the Philippine establishment to root out the old connections and replace them with a China-centric order.
Despite resentment at many levels in the Philippines over the US’ perceived condescending and arrogant behavior, into which Duterte is tapping, as well as his own personal experience at times, the US is a known quantity, with many people in the Philippines enmeshed in multiple ties and experiences.
The New York Times quoted Roilo Golez, a national security adviser to former Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as saying: “ Practically every family here has a relative in the US. They don’t dream of going to China and living there.”
About 4 million Filipinos and Filipino-Americans are said to live in the US, and their remittances back home are an important part of their home country’s economy.
A major sector of the Philippine economy, call centers largely serving US companies, reportedly employ more than 1 million Filipinos.
For Duterte to imagine that the Philippines might be able to almost swap its present relationship with the US and replace it with one with China, is likely to be a painful experience, to put it mildly.
In his sober moments, Duterte seems aware of some of the difficulties and dangers.
For example, on returning home from Beijing, he reportedly sought to soften his call for “separation,” to clarify that it did not mean cutting diplomatic relations, “because the Filipinos in the United States will kill him,” apparently pointing to the magnitude of the linkages between the people of the two countries.
However, Duterte’s Beijing visit and his call for reshaping his country’s relations to make China the center of gravity are likely to have important repercussions for regional politics. It might set a precedent for China’s other neighbors, with issues of contested sovereignty, to see the writing on the wall, and make their own accommodation with Beijing.
Sushil Seth is a commentator in Australia.
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