While the result of the Hong Kong Legislative Council election has been widely upheld as a victory for pro-democracy activists, the so-called pro-establishment or pro-Beijing parties did not actually see their number of seats seriously reduced. The real change occurred on the non-establishment side, where more progressive young candidates replaced the old guard, which could be seen as either a promising or a worrying sign.
Many see the poll’s result as a warning to Beijing, which is especially true as some of the young candidates, who played key roles during the pro-democracy “Umbrella movement” protests in 2014, have gained a foothold in the council.
There were a number of disturbances during campaign. Five prospective candidates were not allowed to run, with two of them running anyway after signing declarations vowing to uphold Hong Kong’s Basic Law, which the government said would be impinged by advocating for independence. Internal struggles within the pro-democracy camp — and a power shift in the pro-establishment camp — were fierce, while rumors and allegations of technical or extralegal intervention were rife.
However, the outcome of the election, which saw a record-breaking turnout, was alarming to Beijing, as the “separatists” are no longer on the streets, but on the council with popular support. At least six of the winners from the non-establishment group have staked out positions of “self-determination” or “independence” for Hong Kong, a stance that many in the old guard of the pro-democracy camp deem dangerous, if not unacceptable.
The pro-establishment camp commands a large number of seats due to the territory’s electoral system, which CNN called one of the world’s “weirdest,” in which half of the 70 seats are not chosen through a popular vote. Having witnessed the advent of more progressive and uncompromising young activists — accompanied by moderate pro-democracy lawmakers who now have to uneasily straddle the middle line and will have a harder time making what they might see as necessary concessions — the council might see starker confrontations and polarization.
While Beijing is likely to worry about the “encroachment” of the “separatist movement” into the institution — there have been rumors that the territory’s government could strip lawmakers of their seats if they make comments that contravene the Basic Law — it might take note of the fact that bringing street protesters into the institutional fold means they are now also forced to play by the book and could become more predictable, or even venal.
Activists-turned-lawmakers face not only an uphill battle, but also a more nuanced one. However, these newly elected lawmakers will now enjoy regular media exposure for their statements and causes. If they provide strong opposition and uncompromising stances, rather than merely disputatious confrontation, they could force real concessions from the establishment forces.
Taiwan should keep a close eye on developments in Hong Kong as talk of “self-determination” and “independence” — which are not new to Taiwanese — get louder, more pervasive and more legitimate in the territory. Beijing’s response — carried out directly or indirectly through Hong Kong’s authorities, or even through the manipulation of the media — will be no less of an indication of how free speech can be gagged and meddled with.
Continued exchanges between Hong Kong and Taiwan should be encouraged, as members of both sides’ younger generations have been collaborating since 2014’s Sunflower movement in Taiwan and the “Umbrella movement.”
After all, when taking on a Goliath, a multitude of Davids have a better chance of winning than one standing alone.
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