China will not invade Taiwan
In response to [US] Secretary [of the Army Eric] Fanning’s recent article (“US Army is laying the foundations of stability in Asia-Pacific,” Aug. 27, page 9), there is no need for a US military presence in the Pacific. There is the idea that if the US leaves the Pacific, China would invade Taiwan. There is no evidence to support this idea.
After World War II, the US fought the Korean War and then the Vietnam War. After losing the Vietnam War, the US was war weary. China could have invaded Taiwan. It did not. Nor did all of Asia become communist as the hawks feared. Today, the US is war weary from the war in Iraq under former US president George H.W. Bush, continued by former US president Bill Clinton and the no-fly zones, then former US president George W. Bush’s invasion, and now US President Barack Obama’s war in Iraq against the Islamic State group. That is 26 years, or more than a quarter of a century, of war in Iraq.
The US has also been at war in Afghanistan since 2002. That is 10 years of two wars in the Middle East. The US military is stretched and not meeting its recruitment goals. Now would be a good time for China to invade Taiwan. However, China has not.
Furthermore, China’s economy is not as strong as it was in recent years. And internally, we simply do not know how stable China is. The rumors coming from China’s leadership elite are that powerful people in China want their children to live in the US. This indicates an internal perception of domestic instability. Yes, China is building island military bases. This does not mean they will invade as they have been building up their military since the end of World War II, but they have not invaded yet.
Taiwan and China have strong business ties. Business leaders carry influence in both Taiwan and China as evidenced by the crackdown on corruption in China and the numerous business corruption stories here in Taiwan. These business leaders care about money more than anything else, not the patriotic rhetoric of uniting all Chinese as though we are still living under some dynasty that rules by the mandate of heaven.
Look at Hong Kong. After the handover, Beijing did not roll in the tanks. Yes, Beijing is practicing censorship in Hong Kong. However, to do that here they would have to invade first and then establish control.
Beijing knows that conquering Taiwan would come at a cost. Specifically, Taiwan’s military will retaliate and cause significant damage to China before the shooting stops.
There is also the idea that if the US leaves the Pacific, war will break out on the Korean Peninsula. The two Koreas are perfectly capable of fighting a war by themselves. They both know that. And there is no indication that either side will attack soon. The South has no interest in attacking first and the North’s leadership is unstable, as evidenced by the recent purges and defections. The North might be too unstable to attack.
Finally, there is absolutely no need for a US military base in Australia or Japan. The US has no potential enemies near Australia. And a significant number of Okinawans want the US military base there to leave.
It does not help that more than one member of US military personnel there has been convicted of raping local women.
Andres Chang
Taipei
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