By most metrics, Taiwan appears to have transitioned from a democratizing state to a “mature democracy,” a term that President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), among others, has used with great frequency when talking about the nation this year.
The phrase, which is attributed to Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington, is often defined as two handovers of power from one legitimately elected leader to another, although his formulation actually requires a double alternation, meaning that the candidate of the ruling party is defeated in an election by the candidate of another party.
Yet democracies are imperfect states, and Taiwan is no exception, something its politicians of all stripes and voters seem loath to recognize.
Even the US, which is so often held up as the model, in US President Barack Obama’s two terms in office and its presidential campaign season, has become as rigidly divided along a color spectrum and politically logjammed as Taiwan was during former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) two terms, when the party in control of the legislature specialized in opposition for opposition’s sake, not for the benefit of voters or the nation.
Which brings us to the darlings of the media and political pundits the world over: opinion polls and the idea that the first 100 days of a new administration are important and defining.
Much has been made of polls that show approval ratings for Tsai and her administration have plunged, with some analysts gloomily predicting that she is losing the hearts and minds of the public and others leapfrogging ahead to predict disaster for the Democratic Progressive Party in the 2018 elections for special municipalities, county commissioners and local councils.
It is worth remembering that surveys taken as former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) neared or passed his first 100 days in office in 2008 saw his approval ratings plummet, just as they had in 2000 for Chen. The Taiwan Society even organized a rally in Taipei to mark Ma’s first 100 days that drew an estimated 300,000 people to protest his performance and press demands for a stronger economy, a transparent judiciary and protection of national sovereignty. The participants also complained about his rush to open up to China.
That sounds eerily familiar to what we have heard this month, except Tsai is also being criticized for something she has no control over — Beijing’s petulance and bully tactics as exemplified by the cutting off of cross-strait communication channels and the flow of Chinese visitors to Taiwan.
However, in all three cases, the fault lies not so much in what Chen, Ma or Tsai did or did not do as its does with voters’ unrealistic expectations.
Translating the florid rhetoric of candidates’ speeches and campaign platforms into governmental reality is difficult, no matter the party, person or nation. Expecting a new president to accomplish anything really substantial overnight — which in the real world is what 100 days amount to — is foolhardy at best, and damaging at worst.
A prime example of the latter is former US president George W. Bush’s first tax-cut plan: the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Act of 2001, submitted to the US House of Representatives at the beginning of March 2001, which proved to be the first step in gutting the budget surplus he inherited from former US president Bill Clinton and becoming one of the main drivers of US budget deficits to this day. Yet Bush had campaigned on a platform that included substantial tax cuts and much was made of his early delivery on that promise.
A truly mature democracy requires something more than just a certain number or kind of political transitions. It requires a maturity in voter thinking and expectations, and recognition, that true change and reform take time.
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