Official Chinese media are having a field day touting the dysfunction of Western democracies. Between Brexit and the nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican presidential candidate, not to mention increasingly frequent terrorist attacks, they have plenty of evidence. However, the truth is that the West’s loss is not China’s gain.
The hope, of course, is that the current travails of democracies around the world could boost the credibility of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Indeed, a commentary in the People’s Daily portrayed the Brexit vote as a reflection of the fundamental flaws of Western democracies. The same paper used Trump’s rise to show that, in the US system, political leaders are “helpless” to address “complex social conflicts” like racial tensions and other sources of popular discontent.
The Global Times seemed to suggest that recent terrorist attacks in the West were a harbinger of some kind of democratic apocalypse. The West might be facing some mysterious and unthinkable “change,” it said.
Given the CCP’s ideological hostility to the West and its zero-sum geopolitical mindset, such gloating should come as no surprise. Indeed, the CCP has long used challenges that arise in democratic countries as part of its never-ending effort to enhance its own legitimacy.
Claiming that democracy barely works in the West, the CCP argues that it would be disastrous for China. Moreover, so long as the Chinese government is delivering consistently rising standards of living, as it has been over the past few decades, there is no need, according to the authorities, even to consider alternative systems.
However, there is little evidence that democratic tumult translates into autocratic legitimacy. On the contrary, dictatorships have historically fallen, regardless of the fortune of Western democracies.
When the so-called third wave of democratization began in the mid-1970s, Western democracies were mired in stagflation and the political trauma of the Vietnam War. The fall of communism in the former Soviet bloc coincided with the reinvigoration of Western democracies in the 1980s. When the Arab Spring erupted in 2011, Western democracies were struggling with the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008.
All of this suggests that autocrats in China should not be holding their breath for some Brexit-induced surge in support. Though stories of democratic dysfunction can give people living under autocratic rule a negative impression of democracy, the effect is most likely short-lived. As long as dictatorships mistreat their own people and fail to improve their lives, their legitimacy will be challenged.
Of course, China is no ordinary autocracy. However, what makes it unique — the link between the CCP’s authority and its ability to sustain economic growth — does not make its gloating any more rational. After all, one of the keys to China’s economic success is its integration into a global economy dominated by the Western democracies, which buy about 60 percent of its exports. In other words, the CCP derives more legitimacy from Western democracies’ success than it would from their failure. No good businessperson would hope that their best customers go bankrupt.
Regardless of how Brexit or the US election plays out, it is likely that governments in Western democracies will respond to voter angst and take measures that imply a return to some degree of protectionism. As the world’s largest exporter, China will not escape the damaging economic consequences of such efforts. In that context, the legitimacy of the CCP, already challenged by China’s economic slowdown, could erode further.
Minxin Pei is a professor at Claremont McKenna College.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry