The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, on Tuesday overwhelmingly backed the Philippines in the South China Sea case it had brought against China. The court ruled that China’s so-called “nine-dash line” lacks legal basis, and that China has violated Philippine sovereignty and fishing rights at the Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island, 黃岩島). The court also ruled that all the islands China claims in the South China Sea are “rocks” that are not entitled to an exclusive economic zone and are not part of a continental shelf. Moreover, it found that Beijing’s large-scale construction of artificial islands has caused harm to the environment and created disputes.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately said that Beijing neither accepts nor recognizes the ruling, and in the run-up to the ruling, it repeatedly emphasized that it would be nothing but “a piece of waste paper” and pretended not to be concerned.
However, Beijing has been extremely cautious. On one hand, it talked tough and launched a military exercise featuring three fleets — more than 100 warships and four admirals — as if it wanted to compete with the US. On the other hand, it ended a military drill the day prior to the ruling so as not to create any disputes on that sensitive day. It also sent former Chinese state councilor Dai Bingguo (戴秉國) to Washington to deal with the situation.
Obviously, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) knows that he cannot go soft in the face of internal pressure lest he be criticized for humiliating the nation and hurting its sovereignty. However, he cannot be too tough either: If armed conflict breaks out due to a misunderstanding, the consequences would be disastrous.
In particular, since US President Barack Obama is gradually becoming a lame-duck president nearing the end of his term, some hawks in the US military have been waiting for a chance to “lock horns” with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to stop the momentum it has built up over the past few years. Xi also knows that although the PLA has increased its arsenal, it still has some distance to go to catch up to the US. Besides, it has not had any actual combat experience for a long time and might not win.
Since coming to power, Xi has used an anti-corruption campaign to purge supporters of former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民), including former domestic security chief Zhou Yongkang (周永康), former Chongqing Communist Party secretary Bo Xilai (薄熙來) and former Central Military Commission vice chairmen Xu Caihou (徐才厚) and Guo Boxiong (郭伯雄), who are now dying to get back at him.
Xu and Guo controlled the Chinese military for a long time. Although Xi has used military reform as an excuse to appoint his own supporters, these appointments have caused much resistance, which forced him to arrest former air force political commissioner general Tian Xiusi (田修思) because of his support for Guo.
Xi has acted tough since coming to power and Jiang’s supporters might force him to get even tougher lest he be criticized for being spineless. They would love to see the PLA confront US troops in battle and, if it were to lose, Xi would have to step down.
Originally, Beijing thought that the ruling would be vague, so China would have a graceful way of backing out of the predicament and leave room for negotiations with the Philippines. However, the explicit ruling was a slap in its face.
Xi’s opponents might attack him for failing to boost the economy, allowing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to regain power in Taiwan, causing the “Umbrella movement” in Hong Kong and mishandling the South China Sea issue while being bullied by a small nation such as the Philippines.
In this atmosphere, Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member Liu Yunshan (劉雲山), a major supporter of Jiang who controls the Chinese media, could stir up nationalism and encourage Chinese to take to the streets. In that case, Xi would have to take a tough approach to protect himself. The Chinese media have reported that China would defend its South China Sea claims at all costs and that it is prepared to go to war. Perhaps that was not Xi’s original intention, but he might have no way to back down if this hawkish tone spreads to mainstream opinion.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is the biggest winner.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has already sent a message expressing his willingness to negotiate with Beijing, which reflected his goodwill. At the moment, China and the US are trying to co-opt the Philippines, giving the nation a good negotiating position that could bring advantages from both sides. However, former Philippine president Benigno Aquino III proposed the arbitration with the support of Washington, so since the ruling is in line with US expectations, the question is whether Washington would allow Duterte to become too friendly with Beijing.
For Taiwanese, both the “nine-dash line” and the “11-dash line” seem distant issues. President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration has intentionally remained vague and kept a low profile, so as not to offend the US or attract criticism from Beijing. The court’s ruling that Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島) is a “rock” rather than an “island” negated former president Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) repeated visits to the island during his presidency. It seems the only way left for Taiwan is to not accept the ruling and to insist on its sovereignty over the island.
Fan Shih-ping is a professor at National Taiwan Normal University’s Graduate Institute of Political Science.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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