President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) recently carried out an inspection of the airbases in Hualien County and visited a naval base in Yilan County’s Suao Township (蘇澳). The nation’s commander-in-chief visiting military bases is nothing new.
However, it is the first time a female president has carried out an inspection and this has caught the public’s attention. Hopefully, the visits are more than just a new president going through the motions, but are actually the beginnings of meaningful reform in defense policy, aimed at strengthening the nation’s military.
As Tsai said in her speech in Hualien on May 30: “The new government will steer our armed forces into a new era with unequivocal strategic guidelines, meticulous policy planning, steady steps toward reforms ... and abundant resources and support.”
For many years, China has been growing and expanding its military by annual double-digit percentage increases in defense expenditure. By contrast, Taiwan has whittled down its defenses, leaving the nation in a perilous position given that China has set the annexation of Taiwan as a top priority.
Getting down to specifics, whether in government or in opposition, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has always been the chief culprit in the evisceration of the nation’s armed forces.
In 2000, when Taiwan experienced its first-ever transition of political power, the KMT, which was in opposition, continually sought to obstruct the government’s purchase of advanced defensive weapons from the US.
After the KMT returned to power in 2008, former president Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration further confused the distinction between Taiwan and China, friend and foe.
Ma reneged on his election promise to maintain the national defense budget at 3 percent of GDP. Furthermore, a constant stream of espionage cases involving the military surfaced under Ma’s watch.
A retired military commander even publicly said that Taiwan’s military and China’s People’s Liberation Army were both “China’s armed forces.”
What is more, Ma, as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, conducted a closed-door meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in a vain attempt to write himself into the history books.
While Taiwan has been running down its own armed forces, China has been showing off its military might. Last year, Beijing organized a large-scale military parade, which was attended by several frustrated Taiwanese politicians and businesspeople.
China has also been active in the East and South China seas, which has caused consternation among its neighbors.
As US-based global policy think tank, the RAND Corporation, recently said, Beijing has employed a long-term policy of incremental advancement, through the use of diplomatic and economic pressure, display of military force and extending its influence on the East and South China seas, in an attempt to weaken the ability of the US to respond.
As for Taiwan, having failed in its attempt to force Tsai to accept the so-called “1992 consensus” in her inauguration speech, Beijing has resumed its wall of noise strategy: enlisting spokespeople from the government, media and academia to repeatedly harass and frighten Taiwan to test Tsai’s administration. Faced with such a situation, the government should exercise caution in its response.
Perhaps for this reason, a succession of influential US observers have recently been issuing warnings on China, giving counsel to US President Barack Obama’s administration and calling on Taiwan’s government to formulate a detailed strategy to tackle the challenges and provocations emanating from Beijing.
Opinion from the US is broadly focused around the following point: Between now and the inauguration of the next US president in January next year, the machinery of US government will be in a temporary state of paralysis, with an election campaign and an administration on its way out. Xi might make use of this opportunity to trick one of China’s regional neighbors into making a move over disputed territory to tease out the US’ “red lines.”
For this reason, Taiwan’s relationship with China has entered a dangerous phase.
Former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton has even said he believes China might make a move soon after the next US president takes office.
In 2001, not long after former US president George W. Bush entered the White House, a Chinese fighter plane collided with a US surveillance plane in international airspace above Hainan Island in the South China Sea.
Bolton and former US representative to the UN Robert O’Brien said that Taiwan should start taking the necessary precautions and should expect a hasty move from Beijing within a year.
Two US security experts, Elbridge Colby and Walter Slocombe, have called on their government to modify the US’ vague policy on Taiwan and recommended that before China causes a provocation, Washington should clearly state that it would defend Taiwan.
More importantly, Taiwan must get its act together.
O’Brien has called on Taiwan to increase its ability to defend itself, rise defense spending to 3 percent of GDP and sign up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Bolton says success or failure will be determined by what Tsai is able to achieve within the first year of her administration, adding that Tsai must proactively seek close cooperation with the US and other allies.
Bolton also advises Tsai to consider what her government’s long-term objectives are and what is the right direction for the nation.
In addition to listening to the forthright opinions of the US, Tsai’s administration — and the public — should maintain a sense of realism while also remaining vigilant to the Chinese threat.
Both before and after entering office, the Democratic Progressive Party emphasized its intention to independently build and supply military hardware for the nation’s armed forces, reversing the nation’s long-standing policy that has favored procuring equipment from abroad over building an autonomous defense capability.
The national defense sector is part and parcel of the nation’s industrial capability as a whole. The military and civilian sectors develop together, and are related in ways that cannot be ignored. It is certainly not the case that Taiwan lacks the ability to develop military equipment itself and with the large number of restrictions on overseas procurement, this is the route Tsai’s government would have to take.
It cannot be said enough that Taiwan has to look out for itself. There is no guarantee any nation would come to Taiwan’s aid in times of trouble.
If Taiwanese set such a low bar for even the most fundamental defense of the nation, then they would not be able to achieve their objectives as a nation.
Taiwan’s determination and ability to defend itself have been called into question by the international community, none of whom would be more delighted than our enemies.
However, a greater damage has been done to Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against an external challenge or invasion by a foreign power.
After eight years of Ma and his posse of con artists operating the levers of power, the nation has been left in a complete shambles. Ma’s often-touted peaceful relations with China are nothing more than a pseudo-peace that has inflicted immense damage to Taiwan’s military.
Whether rebuilding the president’s team of national security advisors, formulating a new national security policy or establishing an independent domestic defense industry, Tsai’s administration must clear out all that is fake and vacuous within government and build up the nation’s defenses centering on truth and reality.
Translated by Edward Jones
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