Beijing has been putting pressure on president-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) to mention the so-called “1992 consensus” in her inaugural speech, but Beijing should understand that, unlike in China, in a democracy like Taiwan even the nation’s leader does not have the final say.
Since Tsai started her presidential campaign last year, China, as well as the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), has been calling on Tsai to recognize the so-called “1992 consensus,” with both Chinese and KMT leaders warning that without recognition of the the “1992 consensus,” cross-strait relations could fall apart.
Tsai said that she would go only so far as to recognize that representatives from Taiwan and China met in Singapore in 1992, but that she does not believe any consensus was reached.
Former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) — who was in office when the meeting took place — admitted that he had made up the term “1992 consensus,” which refers to a tacit understanding between the KMT and the Chinese government that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means.
Former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) — who was in office in 1992 — also said several times that no consensus was reached in the Singapore meeting.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who was the council’s deputy chairman in 1992, has also said that there was no agreement between two sides immediately after the meeting.
Unable to receive a positive response from Tsai and from the DPP, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang (馬曉光) on Wednesday said that “the ball is in the court of Taiwan’s new leader,” meaning that it is up to Tsai to decide whether to mention the “1992 consensus” in her inaugural speech and that Taiwanese might have to suffer the consequences if she does not.
Unfortunately, China might not get what it wants, because in Taiwan the public has the final say.
Tsai won 56 percent of the votes in the January presidential election, while her KMT rival, Eric Chu (朱立倫), garnered only 31 percent of the vote even though Chu and the KMT repeatedly emphasized the importance of the “1992 consensus” and warned about the consequences of not recognizing it.
Various opinion polls show that the majority of the public are opposed to the “1992 consensus” and are against Tsai mentioning it in her inaugural speech.
According to the latest poll by Taiwan Index Survey Research released on Friday, 51.7 percent of the respondents — which is more than the percentage of people who voted for Chu in the presidential election — said that Tsai should neither accept the “1992 consensus” nor the assertion that both sides of Taiwan Strait belong to “one China” in her inaugural speech.
Tsai has every reason to refuse to recognize the “1992 consensus,” but if she does recognize it, she would be acting against and betraying the public’s will.
Instead of saying that “the ball is in the court of Taiwan’s new leader,” perhaps Beijing should say that “the ball is in the court of Taiwanese,” and understand that it is only Beijing’s wishful thinking that Taiwanese would support “unification with the motherland.”
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