The International Court of Arbitration is about to issue a ruling on the case between China and the Philippines over a disputed island in the South China Sea. Most observers believe that the ruling will be unfavorable to China’s “nine-dash line” claim. The US and all claimant nations in the region are alert, concerned that this could trigger a new wave of tensions.
The US is not a claimant state in the South China Sea, but it has signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), although ratification by US Congress is still pending. However, Washington has actively intervened in the region’s sovereignty disputes in recent years. Apart from avoiding seeing the regional situation deteriorate into military conflict, even more important are US strategic concerns and attempts to prevent China from expanding its naval power in the region.
The US first expressed its stance in 1995 when a claim dispute over Mischief Reef (Meiji Reef, 美濟礁) in the South China Sea broke out between China and the Philippines, with the US insisting that the matter be resolved through peaceful talks, that regional peace and stability be maintained, that the UNCLOS regulations be adhered to and that freedom of navigation be protected.
The South China Sea disputes are critical to US national interests since they involve the Philippines, a defense ally since the two nations signed a mutual defense treaty in 1951.
However, Washington did not adopt its approach to handling sovereignty claims in the East China Sea, in which it publicly recognizes that, according to the US-Japan security treaty, the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) — known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan — are under Japanese administration.
The first reason that the US has been unwilling to declare that its defense treaty with the Philippines extends to Manila’s island claims in the South China Sea is that the situation is extremely complex, not to mention the uncertainty as far as China is concerned.
Second, the South China Sea is rich in resources such as oil and natural gas, and it serves as a strategic waterway for one-third of the world’s cargo ships and half of its oil tankers as well as a vital lifeline to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Therefore, maintaining freedom of navigation in the region is of great strategic importance.
Third, Washington must prevent Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea and the challenges that could pose to the US. This is why its intervention in the region has been increasing since 2010. With a two-pronged deterrence and assurance strategy, the US has ensured that no claimant country misjudges the situation and prevented China from expanding its naval power through a monopoly on sovereignty claims in the region.
US President Barack Obama’s administration handles any crisis in the South China Sea according to the overall “rebalancing to Asia” strategic framework. This strategy was first unveiled by then US secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton at the ASEAN forum in 2010.
During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) visit to the US in September last year, he promised Obama that China would not militarize the South China Sea. However, Beijing has since not only reclaimed land, but also deployed missiles and radar in the region. US destroyer the USS Lassen then conducted a freedom of navigation operation in October last year by making a passage through the region, and US carrier USS John C. Stennis also made a passage in March.
Washington has taken great efforts to co-opt ASEAN members, and Obama invited ASEAN leaders to an unprecedented summit in California at the beginning of this year just to deter Beijing.
Meanwhile, the US has reached agreements with Australia and the Philippines that allow it to rotate troops into their military bases. Obama is also set to include Vietnam in this cooperation during his visit this month.
Faced with China’s gradual land reclamation and military deployments in the South China Sea, the US should strengthen the united front, impose effective deterrence and promote international regulations on the matter.
In addition, it should make its attitude clearer to Beijing, so as to deter it from making any irrational moves, such as introducing a South China Sea air defense identification zone after the expected court ruling. Through collective action, it will be able to force China to gradually accept the rules set out in the UNCLOS.
The US and China recently reached agreements on climate change and bilateral investments, and Beijing has accepted and executed the UN Security Council’s latest economic sanctions on North Korea. The two nations have thus built a foundation for a certain degree of mutual trust.
If the International Court of Arbitration merely rules that China’s “nine-dash line” is partially flawed and does not reject the demarcation line completely, perhaps that would open up for future negotiations. The US should prepare a plan B in order to continue wrestling with China and prevent Beijing from causing trouble during the transition period between Obama and his successor.
Liu Shih-chung is a former director of the Democratic Progressive Party’s International Affairs Department.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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