When British Prime Minister David Cameron first promised a referendum on British membership in the EU if he were re-elected, the idea baffled most Germans. They could not believe that the British could be contemplating leaving the EU. What future could they possibly think they might have outside of Europe?
However, Germans have gradually begun to take seriously the possibility that the UK might actually leave the EU — and they are worried. They still cannot imagine a future for Britain outside of Europe, but most Germans also think that “Brexit” would be bad for them, too.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel supported Cameron in his renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with the EU, while at the same time seeking to uphold the principles of freedom of movement and non-discrimination.
Illustration: Yusha
Ahead of a crucial European Council meeting in February, she told the German Bundestag that keeping Britain in the EU was “not just in Britain’s, but also in Germany’s interest.”
What Germans fear most is that Brexit might lead to an unraveling of the European project. They worry that a British vote to leave on June 23 would strengthen the “centrifugal forces” within the EU and prompt other member states to hold referendums of their own — or at least seek to use the threat of one to renegotiate their relationship with the EU, as Cameron did.
Germans also worry about the message sent to the rest of the world if one of the EU’s biggest and most important members opted out, even as the rest of the continent struggled to solve the euro crisis and the refugee crisis. There would be an even greater sense than now that the EU is doomed.
SILVER LINING?
There are some Germans who see a possible upside. In particular, they hope that without the EU’s most difficult member state blocking them or demanding endless “opt-outs,” France and Germany would be able to move ahead with further integration. Brexit might actually force such steps immediately in order to reassure the world about the future of the European project.
Brexit could also simplify the EU in some ways. Some Germans think the increasing institutional complexity of the EU contributes to its lack of legitimacy. In particular, they would like all EU states to join the single currency. Brexit would leave Denmark as the only remaining country with a permanent “opt-out” from the euro.
However, most Germans think Brexit would have much more important downsides. The argument often heard is that if the UK left the EU, Germany would lose a liberal ally on economic policy and be stuck with countries such as France that are perceived as more protectionist.
It is sometimes also said that Germany benefits from the UK’s aggressive attempts to reform the EU on liberal lines; for example, Cameron’s “competitiveness” agenda.
This argument that Germany and the UK are like-minded countries is a little disingenuous, because Germany is not quite as liberal as is sometimes suggested. While it is a strong supporter of trade liberalization beyond the EU, from which its export-driven economy benefits, it is also one of the countries that has blocked internal steps, such as the completion of the single market in services.
Germany is not always aligned with the UK on other economic issues either. For example, even on the right there is support for a financial transactions tax, something that is anathema to Britain’s ruling Conservative Party.
Meanwhile, some Social Democrats see the UK as a corrosive neoliberal influence on the EU and like to think that, without it, France and Germany could together create a more “social” Europe, even though the UK has had nothing to do with the austerity Germany has imposed on the eurozone over the past six years.
Perhaps the most interesting question is whether Germany would be more or less able to get what it wants should the UK leave. At first glance, it would be more powerful simply because its relative weight — expressed, for example, in its voting weight in the European Council or the number of seats in the European parliament it has — would increase.
In fact, this is the reason some officials from other EU member states say in private that is precisely why they do not think it would be in their interests for the UK to leave. Part of the reason France softened its opposition to British membership of the European Economic Community in the late 1960s was that it thought it might help balance West Germany’s increasing economic strength.
However, if Britain left now, none of the other four large member states — France, Italy, Poland and Spain — would be able to counterbalance German power. Without Britain, Germany would be Europe’s hegemon.
Actually, this exaggerates the extent of German power. After all, Germany makes up only 28 percent of the eurozone’s total GDP — between them, France with 21 percent and Italy with 16 percent make up a bigger share. This illustrates that Germany is not a hegemon at all — with or without the UK — but rather a “semi-hegemon.”
In that sense, Germany has returned to the position it occupied in Europe between 1871 and 1945, except in geoeconomic rather than geopolitical form.
‘IMPERIALISM’
However, the problem is that this semi-hegemonic position leads to a perception of dominance and therefore resistance, in particular through the formation of coalitions.
That has been what has happened in Europe over the past six years since the euro crisis began — southern states have opposed Germany on economic policy and eastern states have opposed it on refugee policy. In both cases, Germany has been accused of “imperialism.”
Although a British withdrawal from the EU would not turn Germany into a hegemon, it could increase this perception of German dominance and with it the pressure to form coalitions to counterbalance German power.
Paradoxically, Germany could actually be weaker — that is, less able to get what it wants — in an EU without the UK. Meanwhile, expectations of Germany would probably further increase.
Although Germany has itself become much more euroskeptic in the past decade, few Germans are demanding a referendum of their own. Even the euroskeptic Alternative fur Deutschland wants Germany to leave the single currency rather than the EU. In addition, referendums are not part of the German political system and many are suspicious about such elements of direct democracy.
In any case, leaving the EU is not, in the end, an option for Germany in the way it is for the UK. Germany is simply too central to the EU, which, after all, was created in part as a solution to the vexed “German question.” The EU could survive a British withdrawal, but not a German one.
Hans Kundnani is the author of The Paradox of German Power.
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