Taiwanese elections have always focused on “elimination.” When people cast their ballots, they are thinking about how to use their votes to tell political parties and politicians that they dislike a lesson. As to whether the winner would go on to do a better job, that is not a concern for many people as they head to the ballot box and few consider whether they might have misunderstood the purpose of voting.
Because of this characteristic of Taiwanese voters, election campaigns do not feature many policy debates. Instead, they are full of negative messages aimed at reinforcing voters’ dislike of opponents.
Since candidates do not perceive policy discourse to be important, they usually have campaign teams, but no policy advisers. After all, as long as candidates can reinforce voters’ negative opinions about their rivals, even if they have no concrete policies to speak of, they can still get elected. Theoretically, the reason voters reject a ruling party is because they want new policies to be implemented that would make their lives better.
However, in an electoral culture that puts the emphasis on “elimination,” voters think about getting rid of the incumbent and are not seriously concerned with newcomers’ policies. After all, if the newcomers do a bad job, they can always be booed off the stage next time around.
If academics and politicians were concerned about public affairs, they would generally be insistent about certain policy points. After all, there are numerous solutions for each policy issue. For instance, on the matter of energy, there are the options of solar energy, nuclear power, natural gas, oil and coal.
By applying different models and interpretations, academics and experts can establish different policy preferences. Thus, in an electoral culture in which voters choose a different political party when they want different policies, candidates from all parties would reveal their choice of future ministers during their election campaigns to reinforce voters’ confidence in their policies.
Because genuine academics and experts do not change their policy preferences to cater to politicians, the moment voters see a particular person providing policy advice for a candidate, they can be almost certain about what the candidate’s policies would be if they are elected. That is why the UK has a Shadow Cabinet and why in the US the performance of certain stocks in Wall Street reflect how the elections would unfold even before the results are revealed.
In Taiwanese elections, in which the main concern is whom to eliminate, relatively little concern is devoted to how a future government would be formed. The advantage of this is that the president-elect can have more flexibility in appointing ministers, but the disadvantage is that the electorate is uncertain about what direction the government would take.
Since the president-elect would have won the election because of personal charisma rather than policies, the choice of Cabinet members would largely depend on the president-elect’s personal policy preferences, while their party has little or no say in the process. Given that no clear policy proposals were put forward before the elections in January, the nation’s future is even more of a closely guarded secret.
In the UK, a new administration takes office immediately after winning a general election, while in the US, the caretaker period is only about two weeks, but in Taiwan it takes three months for an elected government to pick and announce new ministers.
Perhaps voters only want to remove an incompetent government, while not desiring drastic changes in policy. That would explain why president-elect Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) pre-election promises to promote cross-strait relations according to the Republic of China Constitution and maintain the “status quo” gave many voters the confidence to support a change of government.
However, as the candidates did not announce their prospective Cabinet members before the election, Tsai was in effect given a blank check to pick whomever she wanted to fill key policymaking positions.
If “the people” do indeed decide policies, then based on the appointments, Taiwanese already have some clue as to what policies might be introduced. Even a novice observer can see that key issues are maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait and engagement in regional cooperation.
However, premier-designate Lin Chuan (林全) is an expert in finance and taxation, which suggests that his policymaking interests would be focused on reforming domestic affairs rather than developing the nation’s international relations. Sustaining an atmosphere of peace across the Taiwan Strait and maintaining the vibrancy of cross-strait economic and trade relations might be urgent tasks for the new administration, but while the future National Security Council secretary-general and the incoming Mainland Affairs Council minister both have expertise in diplomacy, they have scant experience dealing with China.
On the other hand, Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), one of the few China experts in the Democratic Progressive Party, is regrettably designated to serve in the advisory role of Cabinet spokesman. By contrast, rumor has it that former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) is to be the nation’s representative to Japan, clearly in the hope of taking Taiwan-Japan relations to the next level. The post of minister of foreign affairs is to be filled by David Lee (李大維), a long-term representative to the US, so it goes without saying that the new government intends to step up the Taiwan-US relations.
Based on the ministerial appointments so far, the incoming government’s policy directions are clear: a leaning toward the US and Japan, while keeping China at arm’s length.
In view of this, it would be no great surprise if Tsai ignores Beijing’s feelings when she delivers her inauguration address on May 20.
Yang Tai-shuenn is a professor in the Graduate School of Political Science at Chinese Culture University.
Translated by Ethan Zhan
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