Since the new legislative session began last month, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators have proposed several bills of a political nature, but DPP Chairperson and president-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is of the opinion that the party’s legislative agenda must be in line with its overall strategy. And she is right. There is an order to things, and some issues are more important and urgent than others.
There is a long list of issues that the legislature must urgently deal with, such as bills to institutionalize the transition of presidential powers, regulate ill-gotten party assets, promote the development of strategic industries, oversee Taiwan’s entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), reform the pension system and amending the Referendum Act (公民投票法).
At first sight, a bill regulating the oversight of cross-strait negotiations might appear just as urgent, but looking at it from the perspective of the party’s overall strategy suggests otherwise. It should be removed from the party’s list of legislative priorities for the following reasons.
First, the DPP’s landslide victory in the Jan. 16 presidential and legislative elections showed that a majority of Taiwanese strongly disapprove of the so-called “1992 consensus.” Even Richard Bush, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and a former American Institute in Taiwan chairman, said that the election results show the public’s disapproval of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) China-leaning policy, which had emphasized economic integration with China through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) and agreements on trade in services and goods.
Giving priority to passing a bill to monitor cross-strait negotiations would imply that the DPP was ready to resume talks with Beijing over the trade agreements and that it would continue Ma’s China-leaning policy. This would not only go against public opinion, it would also run counter to Tsai’s policy of maintaining the “status quo.”
Second, Ma’s eight years in office have proven that the ECFA is strongly detrimental to Taiwan’s overall economic development and political and economic sovereignty. By lumping Taiwan’s smaller economy with China’s, the ECFA has marginalized Taiwanese businesses.
The failure of Ma’s “6-3-3” policy — which promised 6 percent economic growth, per capita GDP of US$30,000 and an unemployment rate of less than 3 percent — and starting monthly wages of NT$22,000 for university graduates are a direct result of the marginalization of Taiwanese economy.
If the trade agreements come to fruition, they would further cripple Taiwan’s economy by increasing the attraction of China for Taiwanese businesses and the nation’s economy would continue to develop along the lines of Ma’s policies in the next four years.
Third, Ma’s pro-China policy has chained Taiwan to China and isolated the nation from the international community. Tsai’s policy proposes that Taiwan first move toward the world and then toward China through the world. Prioritizing a bill to monitor cross-strait negotiations would lead to talks on more trade agreements, and thus set Taiwan on the wrong course. Furthermore, if the two proposed trade agreements were signed, Beijing would not hesitate to oppose Taiwan’s entry into the TPP.
Fourth, the naming of the bill to monitor cross-strait negotiations is highly sensitive, as it touches on the highly politically sensitive issue of the relationship between Taiwan and China — whether calling it “cross-strait” or “the Taiwan area and the Mainland area.” Considering the bill’s controversial nature, it would be better to leave it until Taiwan joined the TPP, when a public consensus is more likely have consolidated.
Fifth, once a bill to monitor cross-strait negotiations is passed, talks on the two trade agreements are certain to follow. Given Beijing’s plans to bring about unification through economic integration, this would divide Taiwanese society, causing endless legislative strife, which in turn would delay bills that could enhance the nation’s economic infrastructure.
Sixth, tension between the US and China has been mounting as the latter continues to militarize the South China Sea. So far, Beijing has deployed missiles, radar systems and fighter jets and built artificial islands in the region. This has prompted US Secretary of State John Kerry to address China’s attempted expansion in East Asia during his testimony in US Congressional hearings. If, at this sensitive moment in time, the government prioritizes economic integration with China, it would be of little benefit to building mutual trust in the nation’s diplomatic relations with the US and Japan.
Beijing has recently reduced the number of Chinese tourists allowed to visit Taiwan, severely impacting the nation’s tourism industry. This is a clear warning to the incoming government that if the current “status quo” is changed, Beijing would enter every corner of Taiwan and build a tight underground command network and strive to make Taiwan “disappear.”
May God bless Taiwan for the challenges ahead.
Huang Tien-lin is a former advisory member of the National Security Council and a former Presidential Office adviser.
Translated by Yu-an Tu
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