Strength through democracy
President-elect Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) resounding election victory could qualify as a turning point in Taiwan’s democratization. Accompanied by the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) equally impressive showing in the legislative elections, her success stands to reverberate geopolitically in the years to come.
The DPP won 68 of the legislature’s 113 seats, giving it a simple majority, but far short of 85 seats — three quarters of total — or a super majority, a status that carries enormous implications including assured power over the Constitution.
For the DPP to catapult its legislative prowess from 68 to 85, immediately coming to mind is the five seats won by its politically like-minded New Power Party.
One seat won by a person who ran as an independent, yet receiving endorsement from the DPP, might also join its caucus.
The 25 at-large seats garnered by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) present another area that could be mined to bridge the shortfall, given the turmoil the KMT is experiencing in reshaping its ideological identity. Some fragmentation of the party appears unavoidable.
Significantly, at a moment when public support is heightened owing to imminent external threats, even the 68 DPP seats might be sufficient to accomplish just about any legislation.
Take, for instance, the formidable task of amending the Constitution.
“It currently requires approval from three-quarters of the quorum of members of the Legislative Yuan. This quorum requires at least three-quarters of all members of the legislature. After passing the legislature, the amendment needs ratification by at least 50 percent of all eligible voters of the Republic of China (ROC) irrespective of voter turnout.”
The minimum number theoretically needed would therefore be 64.
With the DPP’s rising fortune, the legislative body could morph into a conduit, replacing the insurmountable roadblock of the past, to solidifying the nation’s sovereignty.
To fathom the impacts this changing of guards could bring to the nation, one needs only to recall the last time Taiwan had the chance to be formally recognized internationally.
In October 1971, the UN General Assembly passed Resolution 2758 to recognize the People’s Republic of China as the only legitimate representative of China and expelled representatives of Chiang Kai-shek’s (蔣介石) government.
Given that there was no mention of Taiwan in the Resolution, the US moved to let the ROC be a regular member, with the implied understanding that it would only represent Taiwan. This last notion was rejected by Chiang — ostensibly on constitutional grounds — and the motion was defeated by a vote of 61 to 51, with 16 abstentions.
Should another opportunity arise, Taiwan could grab it only if both its government and people are on the same page. That prospect brightened since Tsai and the DPP took the helm.
Just as important, the existence of such a unified stand could constitute a powerful deterrence to Beijing’s use of force against Taiwan.
Huang Jei-hsuan
Los Angeles, California
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