In one of the least surprising election results in Taiwanese history, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has won the presidency in a landslide victory, while, more importantly, the DPP is set to take control of the legislature for the first time.
Tsai’s victory is a judgement of Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) presidency by the public. Voters were dissatisfied over the slow economy and closer relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
In 1949, with a looming Chinese Communist Party victory, Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) moved his Republic of China (ROC) government to Taiwan. For a quarter century, Washington backed Chiang. Afterwards, former US president Richard Nixon opened a dialogue with China and in 1979 then-US president Jimmy Carter officially recognized Beijing as the legitimate government of China. Nevertheless, the US maintained semi-official ties with Taiwan.
As the PRC began economic reforms, it also developed a commercial relationship with Taiwan.
While the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) says that there is “one China,” the DPP remains committed to independence.
Beijing realizes that Tsai’s victory is not just a rejection of Ma, but also of China. More than 80 percent of Taiwanese would support independence if they did not fear a military response from Beijing. Public support for economic cooperation across the Taiwan Strait has dropped significantly over the last decade.
The PRC’s status as a communist dictatorship discourages closer ties. Moreover, China is a colossus of 1.3 billion people that would drown out 23 million Taiwanese if unification happened.
China’s strategy toward Taiwan is in ruins. In November last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), in a desperate act, met Ma in Singapore, the first summit between the leaders of the two nations. Beijing might have hoped to promote the KMT’s presidential campaign or set a model for the incoming DPP to follow.
Perhaps sensing the futility of his mission, Xi warned that backing away from the so-called “1992 consensus” or “one China” framework could cause cross-strait relations to “encounter surging waves, or even completely capsize.”
While Tsai, backed by a legislative majority, apparently plans no formal moves toward independence, rejects the “1992 consensus” and the phrase “each side having its own interpretation.”
Taipei’s friends, especially Washington, are in a difficult position. The US has a historic commitment to Taiwan, whose people have built a liberal society. Yet the US has much at stake with its relationship with China. Everyone would lose from a battle over what Beijing views as a “renegade province.”
Washington should start by congratulating Tsai for her party’s significant achievement.
However, US President Barack Obama’s administration should counsel Taipei to step carefully. Taiwan’s new government should not give Beijing any reason or excuse to resort to military force.
The US should accelerate efforts to expand economic ties with Taiwan. Improving trade ties would affirm the US’ commitment to a free — if not exactly independent — Taiwan by means other than military.
The US should continue to provide Taipei with weapons to deter Chinese aggression. At the same time, the new government should make good on the DPP’s pledge to make “large military investments.” It makes little sense for the US to anger Beijing with new arms sales if Taipei is unwilling to spend enough money to make a difference.
Washington should encourage friendly nations throughout Asia, Europe and elsewhere to communicate a consistent message to China: Military action against Taiwan would trigger a costly reaction around the world. China would pay a particularly high economic and political price in East Asia, where any remaining illusions of a “peaceful rise” would be laid to rest.
Finally, US officials should explore ideas for a peaceful modus vivendi. One option for Washington is to repeat its acceptance of “one China” and eschew any military commitment to Taiwan.
Taipei would accept its ambiguous national status and announce its neutrality in any conflict that might arise in East Asia, including those involving the US and Japan. China would foreswear military means to resolve Taiwan’s status and reduce the number of missiles aimed at the nation.
The objective would be to make it easier for both China and Taiwan to kick the can down the road. A resolution of their relationship would be put off indefinitely.
Taiwanese have created a democratic system with Chinese characteristics. Hopefully, someday Chinese would be able to do the same.
In the meantime, Tsai is set to govern a nation that has decisively voted for change.
Maintaining both Taiwan’s autonomy and peaceful relations with China will require all of her skills.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He served as a special assistant to former US president Ronald Reagan.
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