As tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine rose in recent years, Turkey moved to jointly manufacture a sophisticated missile defense system. The US$3.4 billion plan would have given Turkey’s military more firepower and laid the foundation to start exporting missiles.
However, Turkey abruptly abandoned the plan just weeks ago in the face of strong opposition from its allies in NATO.
Their main objection: Turkey’s partner, a state-backed Chinese company. Western countries feared a loss of military secrets if Chinese technology were incorporated into Turkey’s air defenses.
Illustration: Mountain people
As one of its highest economic and foreign policy goals, China has laid out an extensive vision for close relations with Turkey and dozens of countries that were loosely connected along the Silk Road more than 1,000 years ago by land and seaborne trade.
However, Beijing’s effort to revive ancient trade routes, a plan known as the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, is causing geopolitical strains, with countries increasingly worried about becoming too dependent on China.
Kazakhstan has limited Chinese investment and immigration for fear of being overwhelmed. Kyrgyzstan has pursued warmer relations with Moscow as a balance to Beijing.
With the missile deal, Turkey was turning toward China partly to reduce its reliance on NATO.
“Our national interest and NATO’s may not be the same for some actions,” Turkish Undersecretary for National Defense Ismail Demir said.
The deal immediately raised red flags in the West.
Besides the technology issues, the Chinese supplier, the China Precision Machinery Import Export Corp, was the target of Western sanctions for providing ballistic missile technology to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria. So, Turkish exports based on a partnership with China Precision could have also been subject to sanctions.
Complicating matters, China and Russia are close allies on many issues. Russia is especially distrusted in Turkey because of its military intervention in Syria and its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. In addition, Turkey has been a close US ally ever since it sent a large contingent of troops to fight North Korea and China during the Korean War.
The Chinese missile project “was one of the things that really made people say ‘Turkey is shifting, wow,’” Ankara-based Institute for Social and Political Researches analyst Mehmet Soylemez said. “China wants to remake the global financial and economic structure.”
With its wealth and markets, China is a tantalizing partner.
Many countries along the former Silk Road are frustrated by the difficulty of developing closer economic ties to the EU. They are also alarmed that the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major regional trade deal, could give an edge to Malaysia and Vietnam.
“So many years, we have been kept waiting at the edge of the EU, and people are losing hope,” Turkish auto parts manufacturer Kirpart Otomotiv general manager Sahin Saylik said. “Turkey is not in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and problems in the Arab world are pushing Turkey to have other alternatives.”
However, the relationship with China is lopsided. Turkey imports US$25 billion per year worth of goods from China, while exporting only US$3 billion to that nation.
In Turkey, stores are full of Chinese goods, from vacuum cleaners to tableware. Chinese companies have purchased coal and marble mines, as well as a 65 percent stake in Turkey’s third-largest container port. China is helping build nearly a dozen rail lines, and it is already a military supplier, selling lower-tech battlefield rockets to Turkey.
Companies are increasingly turning to China for cost reasons, buying components or importing fully assembled products. Arzum, one of Turkey’s best-known appliance manufacturers, did the engineering and marketing for its popular new Okka single-cup Turkish coffee brewers locally, but the brewers are manufactured in southeastern China.
“Ten years ago, Turkey didn’t exactly see the threat of China for manufacturing,” Arzum chairman T. Murat Kolbasi said. “The threat has to be changed to the opportunity.”
Chinese companies can quickly sever ties as well.
The state-controlled China Machinery Engineering Corp abruptly backed out of a US$384.6 million deal to buy a 75 percent stake in the electricity grid of Eskisehir and nearby provinces in Turkey. It happened days after national elections in Turkey in June cast uncertainty on the future of the industry’s regulations.
China Machinery provided no official reason to the Turkish Electricity Distribution Co for canceling the deal. The Chinese company declined to comment.
Turkish Electricity, a nationwide grid company, is suing the Chinese company in an effort to collect a breakup fee.
Turkish Electricity chief executive Mukremin Cepni said that he had worked 18 months on the Eskisehir deal and was unenthusiastic about any more tie-ups with China.
“I won’t think well of them, because personally I struggled a lot, and their going away without giving any reason exhausted us,” Cepni said.
Ethnic issues have further complicated China’s relations. Many countries in the region are Muslim and versions of Turkish are spoken in more than a dozen countries, partly a legacy of the Ottoman Empire.
That history has fanned regional tensions over Beijing’s stringent policies toward the Uighurs — Muslims in China’s Xinjiang region who speak a Turkic language. Beijing has blamed Uighurs for a series of attacks targeting Han Chinese from eastern China.
When China suppressed Uighur protests in 2009, then-Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the actions as “a kind of genocide.”
In July, Turks and Uighurs held two rounds of protests in Istanbul and Ankara.
Now president of Turkey, Erdogan is prioritizing ties with China. He calmed the anti-Chinese protests over the summer by urging his countrymen to be wary of rumors on social media about China’s treatment of the Uighurs.
Nationalistic Turkish groups like Anatolia Youth, previously outspoken about the Uighurs, have responded by softening their stance toward China.
With regard to the missiles, “the bid should have remained with China,” Turkish nongovernmental organization Anatolia Youth foreign relations council chairman Mahmut Temelli said
The missiles became an international issue two years ago, when Turkey’s defense ministry announced it favored a Chinese bid. It beat out a US offer to sell fully built Patriot missiles, as well as similar deals with Western Europe and Russia.
Turkey wanted to churn out missiles, potentially for export in a few years and to stop relying on NATO’s occasional deployments of Patriots.
“You cannot protect a 911km border just with Patriots,” said Merve Seren, a security specialist at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government public policy group in Ankara.
In addition, Turkey’s F-16 fighters, like the two that shot down a Russian warplane late last month, cannot be on patrol continuously, Demir said. Missile systems can be ready around the clock.
As the Syrian conflict worsened, NATO’s limited supply of Patriot missiles meant that it sent only enough to protect three Turkish cities. NATO had begun to withdraw them when the Russian warplane was shot down.
“NATO’s deployment of air defense systems is on and off,” Demir said, just hours after the episode with the Russian warplane, videos of which played on the television in the background. “I don’t know if it gives a message that your partners can rely on.”
However, Turkey had a huge blind spot with the missile project.
Turkish military analysts compared a long list of variables, like missile range and the willingness to share technology and manufacturing. The analysis was approved by a committee including the defense minister, generals and Erdogan, Demir said.
Yet nobody consulted the foreign ministry on how Turkey’s allies would react, partly because NATO had already tolerated Greece’s acquisition of Russian air defense missiles from Cyprus.
“They were informed after the process was completed,” Demir said. “It was not treated as a special project that will have a lot of political results.”
Within days of the announcement about China’s leading bid, NATO member countries organized a campaign to overturn the decision. US President Barack Obama, Western European heads of state and top NATO commanders contacted Turkish leaders.
NATO officials have been cautious, saying any country has a right to choose its own equipment, but they have publicly expressed concern that Chinese missiles might not be compatible with NATO equipment — and privately said that they were loath to share technical details to make compatibility possible.
Last month, Turkey opted to go ahead on its own. It will probably subcontract some components to overseas manufacturers, possibly China Precision.
An engraved metal plate from China Precision in a polished rosewood box still sat on a shelf outside Demir’s office the morning the Russian warplane was shot down. Hours of negotiating with Chinese arms makers has forged a relationship that would make future military cooperation easier, Demir said.
“There is a value,” he said, “in the time we have spent with these companies.”
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