The date for the televised debate for next month’s presidential election is to be finalized in the next few days. Although public opinion polls show that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) holds a solid lead over the other candidates, this debate will not be any less important than the one held before the last presidential election in 2012.
That year, the general perception was that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) succeeded in winning over voters, who mistakenly thought the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) would be beneficial to national economic development. The KMT was able to give full play to the economic scare card during the last week of campaigning.
This time around, the KMT is certain to resort to the same old trick.
A few days ago, Want Want Group chairman Tsai Eng-meng (蔡衍明) said that “only if cross-strait relations are good can the 23 million [Taiwanese] live a good life.”
It was a clear attempt ahead of the debate to mislead voters into believing that if they want a good life, they need good cross-strait relations, and it will not be possible to have good cross-strait relations without the KMT.
Will good cross-strait relations ensure a good life for the nation’s 23 million people? The fact is the only thing that has come out of improved cross-strait relations is Ma’s broken “6-3-3” election pledge and a depressed economy, with starting salaries falling to NT$22,000. In other words, heavily China-dependent cross-strait relations are not the KMT’s strong suit; it is its weak point.
The way to defeat the KMT’s candidate in the debate is to attack the party’s weak points. Tsai should fearlessly tell the public that the ECFA has already done unmentionable harm to the nation’s economy, its young people and the rest of the population.
First, during the debate or the question-and-answer session, the pan-blue camp will repeatedly stress the peace dividends brought by the stable development of cross-strait relations.
However, the past eight years have been characterized by sluggish economic growth, with annual GDP falling from 6.52 percent in 2007. Average economic growth during seven years of Ma administration is 4.68 percent, and a rough estimate shows that average salary dropped by NT$730,000 (US$22,043) last year. This is the ransom that Taiwanese have had to pay for “peace” with China. Tsai must expose their lies for what they are.
Second, the pan-blue camp will blame the DPP and say that its opposition to anything related to China simply because it has to do with China has resulted in political infighting and vicious competition between the two camps.
The DPP must point out that this is the result of legislation proposed by the Ma administration, such as the ECFA, the service trade agreement, the trade in goods agreement and the free economic pilot zones. All these agreements are only beneficial to China and to big business, but not to the general public or the development of the national economy.
If these bills were approved, Taiwan’s economy would be even worse off today. Why does the Ma administration not propose policies that are beneficial to the whole nation?
Finally, the pan-blue camp will stress the importance of regional integration and say that Taiwan needs to respond to China’s 13th five-year plan and be part of the business opportunities offered by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Beijing’s “One Belt, One Road” policy.
The DPP should ask whether the KMT promotes investing in China or in Taiwan. Taking part in the opportunities offered by the five-year plan, the AIIB and the “One Belt, One Road” policy will move Taiwanese resources to China, and that will do nothing to help the nation’s economic development.
Regional integration is indeed necessary, but the primary goal of integration should be Southeast Asia, Pacific Rim countries, the US and Japan. Already 53 percent of orders received in Taiwan are being produced in China. Does Taiwan need further integration with China?
The so-called “1992 consensus” is not the foundation for stable cross-strait exchanges. The pan-blue camp is certain to ask Tsai to propose a solution to replace this “consensus” if she rejects it. However, there were exchanges between the two sides throughout the 17 years between 1990 and 2007, without the so-called “1992 consensus.” Is it really a necessity? All that is needed is to restore the normal cross-strait relations that the two sides enjoyed in the past.
Huang Tien-lin is a former advisory member of the National Security Council and a former Presidential Office adviser.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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