China’s unveiling of “carrier-killer” missiles and cuts in troop numbers on Thursday underlined its shift toward naval strength amid growing Pacific rivalry with the US, analysts said.
More than a dozen anti-ship ballistic missiles capable of traveling at 10 times the speed of sound were shown at a massive military parade in Beijing, with state TV calling them a “trump card” in potential conflicts and “one of China’s key weapons in asymmetric warfare.”
For a fraction of the cost of an aircraft carrier, the missile threatens to alter the balance of power in the Pacific.
The land-based DF-21D intermediate-range missile is said to be equipped with onboard terminal guidance systems that give it the unprecedented ability to attack a moving target, such as a carrier group at sea.
For decades, the US’ fleet of aircraft carriers has been a key component of its ability to project power around the world and Andrew Erickson of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation has described the DF-21D as a “Frankenweapon” that is “potentially unpredictable and disruptive.”
The missile “serve as a deterrent, which requires rivals in the region to think twice about deploying aircraft carrier groups against China,” Singapore-based Nanyang University analyst James Char said.
The technology is untested, but it underlines “the growing importance of China’s naval forces” as Beijing seeks to project its power more widely in the air and on sea, he added.
Also on show in Beijing were longer-range weapons, prompting one commentator on Chinese state TV to exclaim: “Look at this missile! It can hit Hawaii!”
China in May said the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy would put a greater emphasis on “open seas protection,” rather than “offshore waters defense” alone.
At the same time, its air force is to shift focus “from territorial air defense to both defense and offense,” it said.
Beijing is “very concerned with what its rivals, in particular the US naval forces, might do to it,” Char added.
China has been boosting its military budget with double-digit percentage increases for decades, as it takes a more assertive stance in territorial disputes with Asian neighbors in the East and South China Seas. However, the US, which has dominated the Pacific since World War II, has pushed back with a “pivot” to Asia, which US President Barack Obama said is aimed at maintaining “American leadership” in the region.
Washington spends far more on its military than China and is treaty-bound to defend Japan and South Korea, while other allies in the region include Taiwan and the Philippines.
“There’s no doubt that it will be a game changer,” if the DF-21D has its claimed capabilities, IHS Jane’s Jon Grevatt said.
Arthur Ding (丁樹範), a military expert at National Chengchi University in Taipei, cautioned that the missiles’ effective use requires advanced coordination between satellites and ships, and that the US has “many countermeasures” available.
However, he added that it will “somewhat complicate US operations in this region.”
Immediately before the parade, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) announced that the PLA — currently the largest standing military in the world with 2.3 million troops — would cut 300,000 staff.
China’s troops are to “carry out the noble mission of upholding world peace,” he added, and would never “seek hegemony.”
It is the latest in a series of giant cuts to the bloated PLA, which Beijing has reduced by about 2 million troops since the 1980s as it seeks to craft a more efficient fighting force.
The latest decline was “within expectations” and had been under discussion for several years, Ding said, adding: “Overall firepower and mobility has been much better improved, so the cuts can be done.”
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense said the cuts would “mainly target troops equipped with outdated armaments, administrative staff and non-combat personnel” and would make the armed forces “slimmer and more capable.”
Grevatt said they would have a “long-term positive effect” on China’s military capabilities.
“The strength of a military these days is not about the numbers of troops,” he added.
The military has been one of the targets of Xi’s much-publicized anti-corruption drive — which analysts and diplomats say can be used for internal faction fighting — with two of China’s most senior generals falling victim to it in the past year.
Corruption — especially bribery for promotions — is thought to be endemic in China’s army, but the parade provided a show of unity and adherence to the chain of command, troops and generals alike turning their eyes to Xi and saluting as they passed.
“The high-ranking army officials are nervous, because many of them probably were promoted because of bribes,” Ding said. “They have to show their loyalty. Xi has firm control of the military.”
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry