After midnight on Tuesday morning, North Korea and South Korea ended a military standoff that began last week, when the two countries traded rocket artillery fire for the first time in five years.
However, other more important behind-the-scenes action has likely been taking place, involving North Korea and its main trading partner and sole ally — China.
The closed nature of both countries means that it is virtually impossible to know for sure. I base this theory on my experience working for the US State Department in China for three years, living along the China-North Korea border and monitoring food, grain and oil movement in and out of China.
Historically, when North Korea has poked South Korea, it has done so to either stoke national pride or to get Beijing’s attention. That looks likely to have been the case this time. Chinese and North Korean officials have likely been holding talks, primarily in the border region of Liaoning Province, as they did while I was in the region in the mid-2000s. Much of the discussion probably involved China urging restraint between North and South Korea. In the event of a war between the Koreas, millions of North Koreans are likely to flee to China, so it is in China’s best interest to help secure peace on the peninsula.
However, the real meat of the discussion likely concerns what North Korea wants — not necessarily from its southern adversary, but from China. North Korea relies on China for food, arms and energy. And China is much more inclined to use carrots rather than sticks to gain cooperation from Pyongyang.
The most recent provocation likely had its roots in cash and food shortages or, less likely, a snub from Beijing. While the incident occurred in the demilitarized zone, it likely had far more to do with Pyongyang-Beijing relations than relations between the two Koreas.
The June drought in North Korea might have done more harm to the country’s harvests than the World Food Program estimated. The North described this year’s drought as the worst in 100 years. Moreover, North Korea’s closing of its borders for several months during the Ebola outbreak did serious damage to its tourism industry, which, while small, is an important source of hard currency.
Additionally, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has thus far snubbed repeated requests for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a slight that might have played into the recent outburst. Short of both cash and food, and not feeling much love from Beijing, North Korea’s provocative behavior is not surprising.
While much of the international focus has rightly been on events in Panmunjom, experience shows that we should expect activity soon in the Chinese border town of Dandong, the main rail and road port into North Korea. After the November 2009 naval skirmish between the Koreas, food aid — primarily corn — moved across the rail bridge into North Korea and observers along the Chinese side of the border saw shiny new Chinese trucks and heavy equipment suddenly present on the North Korean side of the border.
It seems likely that same thing will happen this time: a sign that by trading rocket artillery fire with South Korea, North Korea was able to extract additional aid from China, as it has in the past.
Reporters and analysts often wonder why China — the world’s second-largest producer of corn — imports and stockpiles corn, which has reached levels so high that new facilities have to be built. It is no accident that these stockpiles are close to the North Korean border. While much is made of how the US and South Korea manage problems with North Korea, less attention is paid to the fact that China is the main guarantor of stability, providing most of North Korea’s food and more than 90 percent of its power.
China responded somewhat differently to the most recent conflict than it has in the past. In recent days it reportedly moved large numbers of troops into the city of Yanji, about 30km from the border. Perhaps more telling than the troop movement itself is the fact that the Chinese government allowed the press to photograph and publish pictures of the movements. This part of the response might indicate that Beijing is more concerned than before about the possibility of regime collapse in North Korea. It plainly shows that, in the event North Korea needs to be secured by a foreign military, the Chinese would get there first.
In the end, this episode is likely to have been mostly about food and fuel. I predict that after these face-saving exits by both Koreas, China is likely to give Pyongyang whatever it really wanted in the first place.
William Johnson is a retired US Air Force officer and a retired foreign service officer. The opinions expressed are his own.
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