Why does Beijing constantly harp on the so-called “1992 consensus” and “one China”? The reason is quite simple: Recognizing the “1992 consensus” means recognizing “one China,” and recognizing “one China” means accepting that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait agree that Taiwan is part of China.
That would mean that relations between Taiwan and China are internal relations, not relations between one nation and another.
As soon as cross-strait relations become an internal affair, as far as international law is concerned, even if communist China were to attack Taiwan, kill Taiwanese and take Taiwan over, the US, Japan or South Korea would have no right to intervene. They would have no choice but to stand by with their arms folded as Taiwan got taken over by the Reds.
In the eyes of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and other top Chinese leaders, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is a muddle-headed and incompetent fool, so, apart from claiming the political credit for the “1992 consensus” and “one China,” they have great hopes that he can sign a peace agreement under the “one China” principle before the end of his second presidential term.
Given that Ma’s IQ is not particularly high, there is a 90 percent chance that he will indeed sign such an agreement. Once it is signed, Taiwan will in effect have ceded its sovereignty, territory and people to China, making that nation Taiwan’s political creditor, and indeed its mortgage creditor. China would then be able to go where it wants and do as it pleases, and there would be nothing that the international community could do about it, because, after all, Taiwan would have signed the agreement voluntarily, not with a gun against its head.
Furthermore, a peace agreement based on the concept of “one China” would be valid even if it is signed by a stupid president. It is scary when you think about it. Ma might sleep well at night, but the other 23 million people in Taiwan are more likely to be tossing and turning in their beds.
In the long term, the way for Taiwanese to sleep well at night is to promote democratization in China and work for lasting world peace. However, for the time being, democracy has not taken root in China, which keeps leering at Taiwan and slavering like a hungry tiger.
As long as that is so, Taiwan, apart from relying on the US, Japan and South Korea, will also need to maintain its own independent national defense and deterrent capability.
Nuclear and biological weapons and information warfare are all important options that anyone who aims to be president cannot overlook or ignore.
Johnson Chuang is a lawyer.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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