Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the US last week, and people scrutinized his every move under a magnifying glass. Abe gave a historic speech at a joint meeting of the US Congress the next day, becoming the first Japanese prime minister to do so since Japan’s defeat in World War II. US-Japan relations are clearly reaching a new level, and the claim that the two countries are working together to constrain China has appeared again.
Looking at the current situation, China continues to take a strong stand in the South China Sea, reclaiming land and deploying long-range radar, fighter jets and missile systems. As China takes forceful actions in these waters, the US is ratcheting up the force of its comments and activities.
First, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter visited several Asian countries early last month. While in Japan on April 9, he criticized the lack of transparency of the Chinese military budget. On the same day, US President Barack Obama also accused China of using its “size and muscle” to bully neighboring countries in the South China Sea.
On April 11, when delivering a speech at the University of the West Indies in Kingston, Jamaica, before attending the Summit of the Americas in Panama, Obama once again seized the chance to reproach Beijing for its land reclamation in the South China Sea by saying: “Where we get concerned with China is where it is not necessarily abiding by international norms and rules, and is using its size and muscle to force countries into subordinate positions.”
On Monday last week, top US and Japanese officials reached an agreement to amend the US-Japan Guidelines for Defense Cooperation for the first time since 1997 by canceling the “geographic restrictions” on joint missions taking place under the US-Japan Security Treaty. This agreement confirms that the scope of the security treaty covers all territories administered by Japan, including the disputed Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台), which are claimed by China and Taiwan and known as the Senkakus in Tokyo. Every trick that the great powers use in their interactions is ruthless and fascinating to behold.
What should concern Taiwan the most is how to choose between siding with Japan — which also means being close to the US — or supporting China. Which side would benefit Taiwan the most? Or could it be that Taiwan will get hurt no matter which side it chooses? Taiwan’s decisionmakers must see the risk and come up with a response strategy.
Unfortunately, Taiwan maintains its normal calm. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has followed past practice by reiterating that the Diaoyutais belong to Taiwan, and that the US-Japan summit did not involve the sovereignty issue. The nation seems helpless and there is nothing it can do to change it.
After the Russo-Japanese war broke out in 1904, the Qing Dynasty was forced to designate the area east of the Liao River a war zone to be devastated by the two sides because it was unable to resist Russia. Could something similar be repeated in the South China Sea? If that happens, it would not only be a diplomatic nightmare for Taiwan, it would also be the beginning of disaster for the nation.
Chang Chi-shin is an assistant research fellow at National Tsing Hua University’s Center for Asia Policy.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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