When Boris Nemtsov was shot dead as he walked home on a drizzly Friday night in Moscow in February, Russia’s beleaguered liberal opposition realized that the rules of the game had changed in the most shocking way.
However, there are also signs that the highest-profile contract killing to take place during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 15 years in charge could have triggered a battle inside Russia’s power structure, the consequences of which could reach far wider than the insular world of the minority opposition — and be much harder for Putin to control.
Given the opacity of the Kremlin, the small circle of decisionmakers around Putin and the use of various media outlets to leak “versions” of the politician’s murder that may have varying degrees of proximity to the truth, piecing together what is really going on is extremely tricky. Much remains unknowable. However, amid the decoding of the signals coming from the Kremlin and those around it, the outline of a conflict between influential members of Putin’s security apparatus is emerging.
Five men have been arrested and remanded in custody for carrying out the crime, including Chechen Zaur Dadayev, who investigators believe pulled the trigger. Given that Dadayev was a member of one of the battalions answering to Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin’s man in Chechnya, suspicion has naturally fallen on him.
The independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta published an investigation that suggested that the killers had been working for figures close to Kadyrov, who has been implicated in all manner of rights abuses and extrajudicial killings, though he has always denied any involvement.
CONTEXT CLUES
Suspicions were raised further by another suspect “blowing himself up with a grenade” when police tried to detain him in Grozny, the Chechen capital, and by Kadyrov’s surprising gambit of writing on his Instagram account that he knew Dadayev personally and believed him to be a “patriot” of Russia.
The next day, Kadyrov was awarded a medal by Putin, as rumors spread that Moscow-based security forces were trying to question people close to him over the murder.
For many, the picture was clear: Powerful people were trying to pursue Kadyrov over the murder, and Putin was telling them he still backed his Chechen protege.
“People in Moscow have never liked Kadyrov; he has always ruled only with Putin’s personal backing,” one former Kremlin insider said. “In Chechnya, there are no normal prosecutors, no normal judges, no normal courts, no normal FSB [Russian Federal Security Bureau]; it is all under Kadyrov’s control. What was the other option? Think about what Chechnya was like 10 years ago. Kadyrov has brought stability.”
Some of Nemtsov’s colleagues have suggested that Kadyrov could just be a useful excuse for those higher up who wanted the politician dead.
Publicly, officials have suggested two options: that the killers acted alone, perhaps in fury at Nemtsov’s condemnation of the Charlie Hebdo killings in Paris, or that they came from abroad.
Hardly an hour after Nemtsov was shot dead, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said it was “100 percent a provocation” aimed at framing Putin and making Russia look bad.
What seems to be clear is that investigators believe Dadayev shot Nemtsov before hopping into a car driven by Anzor Gubashev. The men then allegedly swapped cars a number of times, before arriving at an apartment and flying to Grozny the next day.
Dadayev initially admitted guilt, according to the judge in the brief court hearing held to remand the suspects in custody, but later told human rights activists who visited him in prison he had been tortured into confessing.
CONTRADICTIONS
Piecing together the thinking of the investigation team requires reliance on a number of anonymous leaks given to different Russian publications by officials from the security services and police. Many directly contradict each other and, taken together, give the picture of a behind-the-scenes struggle between parts of the Russian government that may have interests in pursuing different versions.
Last week, the newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda published an alleged interview with an unnamed “source in the FSB.” It reported that the agency’s main thesis was that Nemtsov’s killers were hired by people working for Andriy Parubiy, the former head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.
This is seen by analysts as significant not because it is plausible, but because it suggests some elements in the security services want to push this version rather than pursue other lines of inquiry to their logical conclusion.
Many of Nemtsov’s allies believe the Kremlin was directly involved in the death of their friend and colleague.
“Of course there is rivalry between different groups and I am sure that some of the flaws in handling the case will be exploited by those trying to gain points, but I do not believe that it was done on someone’s own initiative,” said Vladimir Milov, who co-authored reports with Nemtsov about corruption among the elite. “This is a highly centralized system based on loyalty. Why breach that loyalty, risk your families and everything. For what?”
Milov said Nemtsov was an important figure both as a connector of opposition figures who had little in common and as an advocate of sanctions against Putin’s inner circle on the international stage.
“Whenever I met people in the West, I had the feeling that the door had just closed behind me and Boris had just left. He was a very strong advocate for sanctions and people in the Kremlin considered him guilty of that,” Milov said.
Kadyrov has said Dadayev should be tried if he is indeed guilty, but has spent more time praising him as a patriot than criticizing him.
He also posted an ode to Putin’s “wise policies” on Instagram, with repeated declarations of loyalty to the president.
“We are the Russian president’s foot soldiers! I will always be thankful to Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] for everything he has done for me personally and for my people. I will always be his loyal ally, whether he is the president or not. To give your life for such a person would be easy. I guarantee that I would carry out any order, will solve any problem for him no matter how hard it is and how much it might cost me!” Kadyrov wrote.
NO SHIFT?
All of this has led many to see an epic power struggle behind the scenes, but the former Kremlin insider was dismissive of talk of a shift in the tectonic plates under the Kremlin.
“I would not worry about it too much. They will fight a bit and then everyone will come back into line,” he said.
Others are not so sure. The Novaya Gazeta article, which first set out the details of the Chechens that it claimed were involved in the killing, suggested that eventually Putin would have to choose between Kadyrov and the security apparatus.
The article, which ran without a byline, concluded: “The result of [Putin’s] decision will determine not just who ends up in the dock, but the future political configuration of the country, which has found itself on the verge of war between different pillars of the regime. The decision will have to be taken who is a patriot and who is not.”
Some even suggested that Putin’s mystery disappearance recently was connected to a need to withdraw and take difficult decisions. Others said he had a cold. The lack of reliable information adds to the mystery, and many agree there is a confusing, but portentous, atmosphere about politics at the moment.
“There is just this extraordinary feeling in the air,” the editor-in-chief of a Russian media holding said. “You do not know what is going to happen, but you know it’s probably going to be really bad.”
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