Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party had yet another victory by winning 291 of the 475 seats in the lower house election last Sunday, and its ally, the New Clean Government Party, won 35 seats in the election.
By securing more than two-thirds of the total seats, Abe’s coalition government has surpassed the number of legislators required to pass a constitutional amendment, thus maintaining its overwhelming majority in the lower house from before the elections. This situation is likely to reassure Abe as he continues to push his economic policies, known as Abenomics, over the next four years.
Domestic and international observers following the direction of Abe’s government have so far focused on Abenomics. This is indeed crucial to whether Japan will be able to pull away from the economic slowdown the country has experienced over the past two decades and come up with a response to the rise of China and the changing situation in East Asia. However, observers all seem to have forgotten the uncommonly courageous and resourceful leadership and political skills that Abe has shown.
Although most Japanese have not experienced any economic improvements, Abe has led his party to victory in three parliamentary elections in just two years — in the lower house elections in 2012, the upper house elections in July last year and the recent elections — an achievement rarely seen after World War II. This gives a glimpse of the essence of what could be called “Abe-politics.”
The concept of Abe-politics, which was first proposed at a think tank meeting in Tokyo in September, has three major characteristics.
First, Abe has successfully won the hearts and minds of the public. Over the past decade, most Japanese prime ministers have not stayed in office for very long, which has made it difficult for them to come up with a blueprint for major change.
The success of Abenomics does not lie in the effectiveness of related economic policies. Instead, its success lies in its ability to rekindle public hopes of boosting the economy, which has remained stagnant for more than 20 years. His policy to revitalize the local economy and the plan to increase the number of women active in the workforce are good examples showing that he is able to meet public expectations for new action.
Second, Abe has clear and definite tactics. When he returned to power two years ago, he made a pledge to “take back Japan” and then proposed his political vision to rebuild a strong Japan, which was followed by a series of complementary measures in domestic and foreign policy. In addition to the economic policies, he promptly created a political atmosphere favorable to a constitutional amendment.
In terms of foreign affairs, he established two guidelines: consolidating the US-Japan alliance and constructing a diplomatic network to contain China. For example, his introduction of the concept of collective self-defense and the plan to expand the Japanese military were both reflections of his distinct strategic thinking.
Third, Abe has demonstrated extraordinary boldness and decisiveness. To realize his political ideals, Abe has displayed a boldness and judgement that has been rarely seen among Japan’s political elite in recent years. From the state secrets law, the introduction of collective self-defense, his controversial visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, the advancement of the lower house election and the four-point principled agreement with China last month to his concession on the Taiwan-Japan fisheries agreement last year, Abe has clearly shown great resolve and precise calculations.
Along with former Japanese prime ministers Kakuei Tanaka and Yasuhiro Nakasone, Abe is perhaps the Japanese politician with the greatest leadership and strategic thinking skills since the 1970s. In terms of his boldness, he is not inferior to former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. Built on the Japanese hopes for a better future, Abe-politics contains a certain element of magic that enchants people and builds illusions.
The question is how long that effect will last. There is no answer yet, so it is a case of wait and see. Looking to the future of Abe-politics, the main point, apart from his ability to some make adjustments on controversial issues, is whether the public will be able to feel that progress is being made.
At the moment, it is unclear which direction Taiwan’s national policies will take following the impact of last month’s nine-in-one elections. The ongoing Abe-politics should be able to inspire and enlighten Taiwanese politics, which is in urgent need of transformation and innovation.
John Lim is an associate research fellow at the Institute of Modern History at Academia Sinica.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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