US Air Force General Herbert Carlisle, who prefers to be known by his fighter-pilot’s call sign, “Hawk,” was in an expansive mood as he prepared to finish his two-year tour as commander of US air power in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.
In a roundtable discussion with five journalists, the general looked out from his headquarters in Honolulu to his area of operations, a vast triangle running from the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, south to Australia and west to India, and divided the region’s air forces into three categories — and one notable exception.
The top tier comprised the three regional air forces capable of projecting air power throughout much of the triangle: The US Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), and Russia’s Third Air and Air Defense Forces Command with headquarters in Khabarovsk. In addition, each has a second air force as part of its naval service.
The second tier included air forces capable of contributing effectively to the defense of their homelands: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia and India. Carlisle was particularly enthusiastic about professional and personal relations between US and Japanese aviators, which he said were “spectacular.”
A third tier covered smaller, less capable air forces, such as Vietnam’s, which Carlisle said was making progress, but had a long way to go. The US military has been gradually expanding relations with the one-time enemy in Vietnam.
The exception: The North Korean People’s Army Air Force, which might be the least capable in Asia, but is nonetheless “a potential threat,” Carlisle said.
That air force is equipped with an estimated 1,600 aircraft, mostly obsolete Russian and Chinese airplanes left over from the 1950-1953 Korean War. Training is skimpy, flying hours scarce, fuel limited and spare parts scant.
Even so, Carlisle said that because the South Korean capital, Seoul, is in “close proximity,” the North Koreans “would not need high-tech” to launch a catastrophic attack. Seoul is just 56km from the demilitarized zone dividing the two Koreas and its northern suburbs are especially vulnerable.
Among the leading air forces, PACAF is being transformed from an administrative headquarters into a war-fighting center charged with commanding and controlling US fighter, bomber and transport squadrons throughout the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. That change is an unfinished “work in progress,” Carlisle said.
Carlisle, whose 400 aircraft are stationed at nine bases in Japan, South Korea, Guam, Alaska and Hawaii, asserted that “we have more missions than we have money,” given US military budget restraints of recent years. However, those forces are frequently reinforced by aircraft rotating from the US mainland for several months at a time. For instance, bombers are constantly based on Guam.
Thus, the general seemed optimistic: “We’re doing the best we can with what we’ve got.”
On China’s air force, Carlisle was a bit cautious. He said that Chinese pilots have become more aggressive in patrolling over the East and South China seas and that intercept incidents with US aircraft had become more frequent. He suggested that many encounters had been with China’s naval aviators, whose operations might not be coordinated with those of PLAAF.
“We have been talking to the Chinese about rules of behavior” to preclude incidents, Carlisle said.
When US aviators are challenged within China’s air defense identification zone, the consistent US reply is that the US aircraft are flying in international air space and according to international law. China is a “rising power. So we’ve got to have a dialogue with them,” the general said.
Within China, the PLAAF appears to be increasingly influential in setting Chinese military policy. PLAAF General Xu Qiliang (許其亮) was appointed one of two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission in 2012, the first officer from a service other than the army to hold that position. The 11-member commission, chaired by Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping (習近平), is China’s highest military authority.
Carlisle said the Russian air force, which had been active in the Asia-Pacific region during the Cold War that ended in 1991, has begun to reassert itself under Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I believe he sees the Pacific as a key component of that,” the general said.
He added that Russia has increased its long-range patrols near Alaska, California, Hawaii, Guam and Japan.
However, he said the Russians had flown outside the 12-nautical-mile (22.2km) US territorial limit in accordance with international law and had observed accepted practices when flying inside US air defense identification zones or over recognized exclusive economic zones in the ocean stretching 200 nautical miles (370km) out from land. This was in contrast to the occasional “hot dog” maneuvers of Chinese pilots close to US planes.
Asked about PACAF’s relations with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, Carlisle was almost effusive. He said those relations were the best they had ever been and had “exceeded my expectations” during the 27 months he had commanded PACAF. In particular, he was pleased with the way US and Japanese aviators trained and operated together.
The general applauded recent Japanese political moves to permit the nation’s forces, which have been restricted under Japan’s pacifist constitution, to engage in “collective self-defense.” That would allow Japanese pilots, for instance, to fly and fight alongside US pilots to help defend the US even if Japan itself were not under attack.
General Carlisle’s new assignment, which he is scheduled to take up early next month, is to lead the US Air Force Air Combat Command headquartered in Virginia on the US east coast. Its mission is to train and equip fighter, bomber, reconnaissance and transport squadrons and to dispatch them, as needed, to combat commands such as PACAF.
Richard Halloran is a commentator in Hawaii.
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