As the US begins what could be a lengthy military campaign against the Islamic State terror group formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, intelligence and law enforcement officials said another group in Syria, led by a shadowy figure who was once among former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden’s inner circle, poses a more direct threat to the US and Europe.
US officials said that a group called Khorasan has emerged in the past year as the terrorist organization in Syria that may be the most intent on attacking the US or its installations overseas. The officials said it is led by Muhsin al-Fadhli, a senior al-Qaeda operative who, according to the US Department of State, was so close to bin Laden that he was among a small group of people who knew about the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks before they were launched.
There is almost no public information about the Khorasan group, which was described by several intelligence, law enforcement and military officials as being made up of al-Qaeda operatives from across the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa. Members of the cell are said to be particularly interested in devising plots using concealed explosives. It is unclear who is part of the group.
US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on Thursday last week said that “in terms of threat to the homeland, Khorasan may pose as much of a danger as the Islamic State.”
Some US officials and national security experts said the intense focus on the Islamic State had distorted the picture of the terrorist threat that has emerged from the chaos of Syria’s civil war, and that the more immediate threats still come from traditional terror groups like Khorasan and the al-Nusra Front, which is al-Qaeda’s designated affiliate in Syria.
Al-Fadhli, 33, has been tracked by US intelligence agencies for at least a decade.
According to the US State Department, before al-Fadhli arrived in Syria, he lived in Iran as part of a small group of al-Qaeda operatives who had fled from Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks. Iran’s government said the group was under house arrest, but the exact circumstances of the al-Qaeda operatives were disputed for years, and many members of the group ultimately left Iran for Pakistan, Syria and other countries.
In 2012, the State Department identified al-Fadhli as al-Qaeda’s leader in Iran, directing “the movement of funds and operatives” through the country. A US$7 million reward was offered for information leading to his capture. The same State Department release said he was working with wealthy “jihadist donors” in Kuwait, his native country, to raise money for allied rebels in Syria.
In a speech in Brussels in 2005, then-US president George W. Bush referred to al-Fadhli as he thanked European countries for their counterterrorism assistance, saying that al-Fadhli had assisted terrorists who bombed a French oil tanker in 2002 off the coast of Yemen. That attack killed one person and spilled 50,000 barrels of oil that stretched across 72km of coastline.
The Islamic State is viewed as being more focused on consolidating the territory it has amassed in Syria and Iraq than on attacking the West.
Some even caution that military strikes against the group could antagonize it into planning attacks on Western targets, and even benefit other extremist organizations if more moderate factions of the rebellion are not ready to take power on the ground.
The group’s recent statements, including a video using a British captive as a spokesman, have sought to deter US action against the group and threatened attacks only as revenge for US strikes.
At the same time, the rise of the Islamic State has blunted the momentum of its rival groups in Syria, including the al-Nusra Front, once considered to be among the most capable in the array of Syrian rebel groups. The Islamic State’s expansion across northern Iraq and in oil-rich regions of eastern Syria has sapped some of the al-Nusra Front’s resources and siphoned some of its fighters — drawn by the Islamic State’s battlefield successes and declaration of a caliphate, the longtime dream of many Muslim extremists.
It is difficult to assess the seriousness and scope of any terror plots that Khorasan, the al-Nusra Front or other groups in Syria might be planning. In several instances in the past year, al-Nusra and the Islamic State have used US citizens who have joined their ranks to carry out attacks — including at least one suicide bombing — inside Syria, rather than returning them to strike inside the US.
Beyond the militant groups fighting for control of territory, Syria has become a magnet for Islamic extremists from other nations who have reportedly used parts of the nation as a sanctuary to plot attacks.
“What you have is a growing body of extremists from around the world who are coming in and taking advantage of the ungoverned areas and creating informal ad hoc groups that are not directly aligned with [the Islamic State] or al-Nusra,” a former senior US law enforcement official said.
Spokespeople for the CIA and the White House declined to comment for this article.
The grinding war in Syria, well into its fourth year, has led to a constant shifting of alliances among the hard-line rebel groups.
Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of al-Qaeda, has anointed the al-Nusra Front as its official branch in Syria and cut ties with the Islamic State early this year after the group refused to follow his orders to fight only in Iraq.
Officials said Khorasan was an offshoot of the al-Nusra Front.
According to a new report by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit research and analysis organization, the rifts among these various groups “threaten to create a conflict throughout the jihadist movement that is no longer confined to Syria and Iraq.”
While al-Nusra has been weakened, it remains one of the few rebel organizations that has active branches throughout Syria. Analysts view the organization as well placed to benefit from US strikes that might weaken the Islamic State.
Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria analyst with the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, said US strikes could benefit the al-Nusra Front if the US did not ensure that there was another force ready to assume power.
“There is definitely a threat that, if not conducted as a component of a properly tailored strategy within Syria, the American strikes would allow the al-Nusra Front to fill a vacuum in eastern Syria,” she said.
She said that the al-Nusra Front was the primary force in the eastern province of Deir al-Zour before it was pushed out by the Islamic State this year and that its had maintained better relationships with local tribes than the Islamic State has. This could make it easier for the group to return if the Islamic State is chased out by US airstrikes.
While the al-Nusra Front does not openly call for attacks on the West, it remains loyal to al-Zawahiri, whose clout among extremists has waned with the rise of the Islamic State.
A great deal remains uncertain about the al-Nusra Front’s ultimate aims inside Syria.
Hamza al-Shimali, head of the US-backed Hazzm Movement rebel group, said he and his allies did not trust the al-Nusra Front. He said he feared that one day he would have to fight the al-Nusra Front in addition to the Syrian government and the Islamic State.
US intelligence officials estimate that since the Syrian conflict began, about 15,000 foreigners, including more than 100 US citizens and 2,000 Europeans, have traveled to fight alongside rebel groups. Syria’s porous borders make it relatively easy to get in and out of the country, raising concerns among Western officials that, without markings on their passports, they could slip back undetected into Europe or the US.
Additional reporting by Ben Hubbard and Eric Schmitt
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