China and South Korea are negotiating the signing of a free-trade agreement (FTA), and the government warns that this could affect Taiwanese exports by as much as US$38.6 billion.
Thus, the government is exhorting the legislature to hastily pass the cross-strait service trade agreement and asking the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to facilitate this process, rather than ameliorating public concerns about the pact in order to avoid resistance in the legislature.
First, the government’s projections for the agreement’s likely impact are not convincing.
The government says the pact will impact positively on both the Taiwanese economy and on employment, but only increase GDP by a very modest 0.025 to 0.034 percent.
The government report ignores issues of the potential political and economic impacts, offering no assurances that Beijing will allow Taiwan’s participation in Asia-Pacific economic integration going forward.
Second, most Taiwanese do not want the government to sign the agreement.
This year, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) published three polls suggesting public opinion is evenly divided, but eight polls released by TVBS, Taiwan Indicators Survey Research (TISR) and the Grassroots Influence Foundation (草根影響力文教基金會) — the most recent being published in July — show that opposition to the agreement trumps support for it by 10 percentage points.
Third, opinion among pan-green and pan-blue supporters is polarized, encouraging confrontation.
According to DPP and TVBS polls, about 80 percent of pan-green supporters oppose the pact, while more than 70 percent of pan-blue supporters want to see it signed.
Fourth, the government says the pact will bring more advantages than drawbacks for Taiwan, but the public disagree.
According to three polls by TVBS and TISR, about 40 percent of the public believe the agreement will be bad for Taiwan overall, compared with only 30 percent who believe its net effect will be positive.
Fifth, concerns over the risk posed toward Taiwan’s national security and autonomy have fallen on deaf ears.
A TISR opinion poll conducted in March shows that exactly half of Taiwanese believe the pact poses a net risk to Taiwan’s national security and sovereignty, versus only 20 percent who disagree.
Next, the younger generations are least likely to support the signing of the agreement.
According to a poll published by TVBS in April, opposition to the pact among the 20-29 age group is 46 percentage points higher than is support. In the 30-39 age group the differential is 22 percentage points, with more opposition than support.
Finally, support is also divided geographically, with more opposition to the agreement the further south the respondents live.
The April TVBS poll showed that among respondents north of Greater Taichung, opposition was higher by about 10 percentage points; among those from Greater Taichung itself, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, Chiayi and Greater Tainan, the gap is 15 percentage points; and this gap grows to 25 percentage points among respondents from Greater Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Penghu.
The government must address such concerns to see the pact passed in the legislature soon, otherwise it will have to force it through, exacerbating confrontation between the blue and green camps. It must change its methods if it is going to succeed in this.
Tung Chen-yuan is a professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Development Studies.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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