Beijing’s self-sabotage
Though the news of the denial of Hong Kong entrance visas to Lin Fei-fan (林飛帆) and other leaders of the Sunflower movement has renewed discussion of the similarity in the political statuses of Hong Kong and Taiwan, it is important for pundits and government officials in Beijing to realize that Taiwan is not Hong Kong.
If China intends to apply the “Hong Kong strategy” in its acquisition of Taiwan, it most assuredly will fail.
More than 60 years of self-rule in the style of an independent nation (including more than 20 years as a democracy based on universal suffrage) have given the Taiwanese a strong preference for a home-grown government system based an a national political identity.
On the other hand, Hong Kong has been governed as a colony based on economic activity throughout its entire history, at no point experiencing a period of self-determination.
Hong Kong, which does not elect its leaders through universal suffrage, was returned to the Chinese
in 1997 as a result of a previously agreed upon arrangement between the British and Chinese states. No such arrangement exists in Taiwan, and dismantling the Taiwanese political system in order to bring it closer in line with that of the People’s Republic of China would be an arduous and potentially violent process.
Additionally, Hong Kong’s geographic proximity to China and its lack of a strong local military make assuming control of the territory an easier task logistically. The defense of the territory, once the responsibility of the former British colonial government, now falls under the mandate of the People’s Liberation Army, which has a garrison of 6,000 members in Hong Kong.
Conversely, mandatory military service in Taiwan for men gives it a military strength of 300,000 active personnel with an estimated 3,870,000 in reserve — whose current foremost mission is the defense of the island against a possible Chinese invasion.
In addition, Taiwan’s military strength is bolstered by weapons sales and support from the US.
Finally, China has failed in its charm offensive, thereby tipping its hand to Taiwan and dashing any hopes of a voluntary “unification” in the near future.
The release of the recent white paper on Hong Kong by the Chinese government has Beijing in the position of the bully, duping Hong Kongers with its promise of “one country, two systems,” when in reality moving to limit freedom of speech and press in the territory.
If China was hoping to entice Taiwanese to “rejoin the fold” with promises of maintaining Taiwan’s democratic system while ensuring a higher quality of life, their Hong Kong experiment has squashed those hopes.
China must now understand that in a political environment where even the possibility of a trade agreement with Beijing sends the island into heated turmoil, peaceful and voluntary “unification” across the Taiwan Strait is impossible in the near future.
In short, Hong Kong is a former British colony of 7 million people with no military or recent history of self-rule, while Taiwan is an island of 23 million inhabitants with a national military that has grown accustomed to governing itself.
If Beijing is hoping to integrate Taiwan into the Chinese political state after over a century of separation, it is going to have to go back to the drawing board.
Garrett Dee
New Taipei City
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