US President Barack Obama’s second term was supposed to be a crowning opportunity to make his mark on the world stage, but instead he is leading an intense effort to redefine his foreign policy record — and the odds look stacked against him.
An administration-wide public relations blitz, which Obama launched with a big foreign policy speech this week, has done little to quell critics who frequently pan his global approach as rudderless, as the White House lurches from crisis to crisis.
With just two-and-a-half years left in office, Obama’s chances of forging a successful foreign-policy legacy by the end of his presidency face seemingly intractable challenges, ranging from Ukraine to Syria to the South China Sea.
While Obama has outlined a strategy that includes both a strong military and the diplomatic tools of alliances and sanctions to provide global leadership, it is unclear if he and his aides have the vision — let alone time — to change the perception of a presidency with eroding global influence.
“This is a risk-averse president who is unlikely to take bold strokes,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser to Republican and Democratic administrations. “And he faces a series of problems in which quick-and-easy American fixes are really not available.”
Topping the list is Ukraine, where Obama and other Western leaders were powerless to prevent Russia’s seizure of Crimea. It was a sharp rebuke to Obama’s “reset” of relations with Moscow in his first term — once seen as a big legacy achievement — and prompted Republican critics to call him naive for ever trusting Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The best outcome Obama can hope for may be for Moscow to refrain from taking over more of eastern Ukraine, which might be a credit to the impact of US-led sanctions, but hardly an accomplishment of historic proportions for his second term.
The image of Obama as a passive world leader has been fed by perceptions he has allowed the civil war in Syria to fester.
His failure to strike Syrian forces last year after they crossed a US “red line” on the use of chemical weapons left doubts about Obama’s willingness to use force in other world crises.
Although Obama used his speech to graduating cadets at West Point on Wednesday last week to announce increased support for Syrian rebels, he made clear US involvement would remain limited.
How far Obama will go in response to China’s growing assertiveness in maritime disputes with its neighbors is another tough question for the remainder of his term.
Though he offered assurances last Wednesday about his effort to deepen US engagement with Asia, progress has been slow and some allies are wondering whether his Asia “pivot” is real.
The most promising of Obama’s foreign policy initiatives — and the one that could go the farthest in making history — is his outreach to Iran that led to resumption of nuclear talks last year. However, Obama acknowledged the odds for success are long. And even if a deal is reached, he would face an uphill struggle to win US congressional approval, as well as backing from Israel.
DEEP FRUSTRATION
Obama’s speech grew out of the president and his aides’ exasperation over accusations that he had weakened the US’ leadership in the world, and their fear that the critique was hardening into conventional wisdom.
He may have made the situation worse when, pressed to lay out an “Obama doctrine” on a trip to Asia last month, he testily outlined a foreign policy that “avoids errors.”
“Don’t do stupid stuff” is the cleaned-up version of a phrase used in Obama’s inner circle, aides say, to describe what they see as a pragmatic approach by a president who met his promise to extract the US from an unpopular war in Iraq and is winding down the war in Afghanistan.
Wednesday last week’s speech kicked off a weeks-long effort by the White House to counter critics. He plans to elaborate during his trip to Europe this week, and aides will make issue-specific speeches at home and abroad to reinforce Obama’s message.
Obama, a trained constitutional lawyer, methodically defended his record and cast his critics as out of step with war-weary Americans.
Some fellow Democrats and once-supportive columnists also recently have struck a more critical tone.
The speech was widely panned by newspaper editorialists, with the New York Times declaring: “The address did not match the hype, was largely uninspiring, lacked strategic sweep and is unlikely to quiet his detractors, on the right or the left.”
However, Michael O’Hanlon, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution think tank, said Obama was striking the right balance in crises like Ukraine, though he needed to do a better job explaining himself.
“A little dose of [former US president] Ronald Reagan might help,” he wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine.
SECOND-TERM OBSTACLES
Getting the US out of Iraq and on the way to withdrawal from Afghanistan — not to mention giving the order for the mission that killed former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden — will certainly go down as first-term bright spots that will aid Obama’s overall record.
The international arena is where second-term presidents often focus more attention, especially when a divided US Congress stymies their legislative ambitions.
This raises the possibility that Obama may make another try at Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking after the collapse of the latest US effort, or possibly make fresh overtures to communist Cuba.
However, Obama’s window may close before he can score new successes that might help him recover his footing. Lame-duck status is looming as this year’s mid-term US congressional elections approach, and world leaders may be less apt to cooperate if they see his power ebbing at home.
On top of that, recent polls show that at least half of Americans disapprove of his overall approach to world affairs,
Other second-term presidents have overcome early troubles and seen their foreign policy records treated well by historians. Reagan’s second term was damaged by the Iran-Contra scandal, but he is now hailed for nuclear arms control and tough diplomacy that eventually ended the Cold War.
Former US president Bill Clinton’s record was tarnished by a weak response to Rwanda’s genocide in his first term, but his deeper engagement in Balkans peacemaking and even a ambitious, but failed Middle East peace effort left him in good stead at the end of his tenure.
On the other hand, former US president George W. Bush’s public approval ratings never recovered in his second term as Americans soured on the Iraq war.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
The past few months have seen tremendous strides in India’s journey to develop a vibrant semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The nation’s established prowess in information technology (IT) has earned it much-needed revenue and prestige across the globe. Now, through the convergence of engineering talent, supportive government policies, an expanding market and technologically adaptive entrepreneurship, India is striving to become part of global electronics and semiconductor supply chains. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vision of “Make in India” and “Design in India” has been the guiding force behind the government’s incentive schemes that span skilling, design, fabrication, assembly, testing and packaging, and
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.