Those hoping for regime change in North Korea may have just had their wish granted. It is just not the type of change they had been hoping for.
The purge and swift execution of North Korea’s second-most powerful leader, Jang Song-thaek, proves once again the dangers associated with being next in the chain of command in an authoritarian society. Even being the No. 1 guy’s uncle (by marriage, not by birth) may not save you.
What this means for the stability of the regime and for its future policy is anyone’s guess, and it is important to remember that when it comes to North Korea, everyone is guessing. The frustrating part about analyzing North Korea’s actions is that every event has at least two equally plausible, but diametrically opposed explanations.
The experts seem divided between those who think that Jang’s removal from power reflects North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s total control — he is now secure enough to remove his father’s chosen mentor — and those who believe that it reflects just how unstable and insecure the young leader really is.
The latter seems the more likely explanation, but the truth will be revealed if more people are purged or rehabilitated. More than 40 percent of the senior leadership has been removed or retired in the not quite two years since Kim came to power, including some who were potentially Jang’s rivals, who might now make a comeback.
One thing is sure: The previously once-purged Jang will not be making a comeback. Putting him to death — common for lower-ranked individuals, but rare for senior leaders, especially if they are members of the ruling family — could show how insecure Kim is about his ability to truly neutralize his once-powerful uncle.
While much remains to be sorted out and understood, what seems clear is that “Chinese-style reform” is increasingly unlikely for North Korea. Jang had long been seen as its No. 1 advocate; the Chinese treated Jang like a visiting head of state when he went to Beijing last year. While there, he reportedly assured the Chinese leadership that, in return for Chinese support for the new leader, Kim would, with Jang’s encouragement and supervision, eventually take North Korea down the Chinese path.
In all likelihood, this line of thinking has been at least temporarily discredited. Even if his purge was all about power and personalities vice policy, it would be very dangerous for others to be seen as supporting Jang’s policy prescriptions at this time. If reports that China received no advance warning of this event and that some Jang supporters are seeking asylum in China are true, this bodes ill for the China model, and perhaps for the Sino-North Korean relationship as well. That Jang’s long list of sins included selling North Korean assets too cheaply to China must be additional salt in the Chinese wound.
Chinese colleagues sometimes tell me, only half jokingly, that they want to take their children to North Korea to let them see what China was like in the old days, before Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) led China down the path of reform. Many seemed to believe that Jang would turn out to be the North’s Deng. It was the twice-purged Deng who pulled off his own internal coup in 1976, bringing about the regime change in China that saw the so-called Gang of Four, led by Mao’s widow Jiang Qing (江青), ousted.
While others will watch closely for changes in North Korean policy after Jang’s execution, it is the change that is not likely to happen that could be the most significant. The chances of Deng-styled reform in North Korea may have just died along with Jang. Imagine China’s fate if the Gang of Four had prevailed? This may have been what just happened in Pyongyang.
Ralph Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
The past few months have seen tremendous strides in India’s journey to develop a vibrant semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The nation’s established prowess in information technology (IT) has earned it much-needed revenue and prestige across the globe. Now, through the convergence of engineering talent, supportive government policies, an expanding market and technologically adaptive entrepreneurship, India is striving to become part of global electronics and semiconductor supply chains. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vision of “Make in India” and “Design in India” has been the guiding force behind the government’s incentive schemes that span skilling, design, fabrication, assembly, testing and packaging, and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry